Bracketing (Better Estimates at the Table) - Doug Hull

AdamCAdamC Red Chipper Posts: 3

Bracketing Video Error

I don't know if this video gets better because I couldn't get past the first real poker example. Unless it gets corrected I think it should be taken down as it will only mislead.

The example is that there is $170 in the pot and the villain shoves on the flop for $100.

At 3:54 in the video Doug says we are getting $270 if we win the pot and that our risk is $100 backing up what was said earlier as well as the graphic in the video showing a $170 pot as well as the $100 villain shove. So there can be no misunderstanding about what numbers we are working with.

So far so good.

But then he goes through his bracketing and comes up with the idea that we need somewhere between 33% and 40% equity to call and settled on 35% as a usable number. He then says the truth is its actually 37%.

No!

It's obvious from the round numbers we're getting 2.7 to 1. We all should know that 2 to 1 is 33% and that 3 to 1 is 25%, meaning that using bracketing it has to be somewhere between 25% and 33% (and obviously closer to the 25% side). The actual answer is 27%.

I didn't watch any further.

Comments

  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,872 -
    edited April 2016
    AdamC,

    You are absolutely correct.

    I carelessly calculated the equity required with (risk/reward) when it is (risk/(risk+reward))

    I have noted this in the description and added a note in the video.

    While this is a logical error to be sure, the real point of this video is estimation techniques. Even though I estimated with a flawed formula, the estimation techniques are the point of the video and were done correctly (but on the wrong formula!)

    Thank you for pointing this out. You were credited in the video and video description.

    The updated video is now live.

    Thank you
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • AdamCAdamC Red Chipper Posts: 3
    Hey Doug,
    Awesome job to fix it so quickly!
    Thanks.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,872 -
    Thank for the help, now go finish the video! :)
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks

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