Calculating realistic combos and ranges when facing a shove?

PescatarianPescatarian Red Chipper Posts: 83
edited November 2014 in Live Poker Hands
Hand is from MTT, early stages. Blinds 50/100.

UTG2 opens to 250
MP2 (Hero, t10,400) raises to 600 with :Qc :Qs
BTN (Villain, t11,100) raises all-in
Folds to Hero.

So the hands that villain could make this strange move with are:

AA (6 combos)
KK (6 combos)
QQ (1 combo)
JJ (6 combos)
TT (6 combos)
AK (16 combos)
AQs (2 combos)

I can pretty much discount anything else. I need to have 46%+ equity to profitably call and equilab tells me I have 53% equity against this range.

However, I know this guy well and he is the type of fishy pub player who gets terrified of JJ and AK. He feels he should win hands with these holdings but doesn't have the skill to play them well post flop so is prone to massive overbets pre flop and is happy to just win blinds and lose a ton of value. He is also the type of guy who would limp or min raise AA or KK in fear of pushing people off. Based on the info I have on the guy, here is my subjective assessment of his range:

AA or KK: Highly unlikely
TT: Almost Never
JJ: Extremely Likely
AK: Highly Likely
AQs: Almost Never
Anything Else: Never

So even though JJ has less combos I think it's more likely he does this with JJ than AK so I assign them about the same likelihood. Here is my guess of what he shows up with here, with my equity in brackets:

JJ: 45% (82%)
AK: 45% (56%)
AA/KK: 5% (19%)
TT/AQ/Random: 5% (80%)

So my total equity against this range is 66%, making it an easy call.

Is this an acceptable way of working things out when you have info about your opponent? Is there a more scientific way to go about it?

And then the second part of my question... I actually folded here despite it being a profitable call. My reasoning was that even with such good equity I am still taking a pretty big gamble early in a tournament in which I feel I am one of the better players. I would rather look to use my edges elsewhere in situations with less variance. Would be interested to hear peoples thoughts on this kind of decision.

Comments

  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    Was this a rebuy? I don't think I can fold here with this guys range you have to snap call all day. You win this pot early in a tourny it puts you in a great spot
  • PescatarianPescatarian Red Chipper Posts: 83
    No freezeout, took me an hour to drive there too and this is 25 minutes in. The villain is a fish who would be happy to sit and drink beer for the next 5 hours if he busts out whereas I'm going there to earn money against bad players. So it's hard for me to take such a gamble even though it's a bad decision mathematically speaking.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,769 -
    This is exactly hand reading and Villain profiling. There is no right or wrong: You can never ask the Villain "What is your range here?" because he likely does not know anyways. You can refine your model so you are surprised less often.

    I think there are two critical parts of all of this:

    * Make a read
    * Do something about it

    Doing just the first is practice, doing the just the second is spazzing out. Doing them both is playing poker.

    Without history, I would assume this to be a Crazy Ivan (See my sweet temptations video) With a refined read, you have a different range. If he has exactly AK or JJ, seems like you are gettign a freeroll of sorts. Flipping coins or 80/20. I know what I would do.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks

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