3-bet with AK OOP when you wiff

jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 609 ✭✭✭
edited March 5 in Live Poker Hands
$1-2 hero ($635) has aggressive image. Table is weak with a ton of high hand promos limping and trying to make hands. V (covers) is a solid reg, I've played with him at $2-5 as well, pretty straight forward but also capable of making some moves. Seems to extract value from bad players and hand read well.


3 limpers to hero in HJ hero with :AS: :KS: , make it $20. Hero has been using these larger sizes and one of the limpers generally calls, which is his idea 1-2 limpers but is fine with none. V 3-bets to $60 on the BU. Folds to hero. So V is perceptive. I've seen him in late position attack weak $6-7 opens, and has hand read people very well so far. I think he knows I've been attacking a ton of limpers and he's seen me fold my opens to 3-bets so I think he's probably got a decent hand but I block A and K, so it doesn't have to be a monster for him to do this. However, I believe 4-betting is the incorrect play as I'm only getting called by better and folding out hands I dominate such as AQ, KQ ect. I call.


Pot $130~



Flop comes :9s :4d :2H: . I check to him as I would with all my hands, and he bet's $65. He's a good player, and I think he will c-bet the entirity of his range, plus $65 doesn't feel super strong, more of a bet that would fold out all worse players who bricked AK, AQ, KQ, AJs ect. I have BD flush draw and over cards. I call, with the plan to fold to further turn aggression if I don't pick up equity.

Pot $ 260~


Turn is :9H: . It's even less likely he has a set of 99's for value (didn't really put him on that anyways. I check, he tanks for a while and checks behind. I was pretty sure he'd bet with a hand such as 88 or 10 again, so I'm thinking he's weighted more towards face cards or trash.



River is a low card brick. Should I fire a river bluff or take my show-down? I ended up betting $135 and he insta-mucked before I even got the chips into the pot. I'd like to hear thoughts on this, as even though he ran a 3-bet bluff and single C-bet, I still feel at times middling PP will just pot control me and call me on the river here. Should you size larger? This is the sizing and exact way I'd play JJ or QQ who think I can get value from 77, 88 or 10's.
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Comments

  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 969 ✭✭✭✭
    I like how you played the hand. Your actions look exactly like how someone would play TT-QQ. Also, I think betting with AK is a fine play--not because you'll get called by worse, but because your opponent's hand is starting to look a lot like AK as well. So, you're stealing the chops.
  • PondyPondy Red Chipper Posts: 145 ✭✭
    Looks good how you played it. His 3betting range is something like TT+, 87s+, A2s-A5s, maybe KQ, AJ+ and possibly some really random stuff. I think he cbets with 100% of this range as I don't see why he would check anything unless he were prepared to give up straight away. Also, I think he would check back the turn with most of his range, except T9s, 98s, maybe some flush draws and KK+, although he might even check the draws and KK+.

    On the river, the only hands that he has and that beat you are overpairs. He probably finds a call with any overpair and folds everything else. He might call with AK, which is why I might size the river stab a bit bigger (180ish) just to make sure he folds AK - and he might then even fold TT. But if you bet half pot, he has to fold over 35% and he folds a lot more. If he folds everything that is not a pair, he folds about 70%. And even if he calls AK, it is still a very profitable stab.
  • david wdavid w Red Chipper Posts: 54
    I like 4 betting and folding to a 5 bet better then calling for the situation you described.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭✭
    I don't know if I agree with your reasons for not 4-betting. You said that he has been attacking $6-7 raises and you believe that he is aware of you attacking limpers. The fact that he plays $2-5 leans me more towards him being capable of 3-betting a little on the light side. If he was a $1-2 reg, I would weight his 3-bet more towards only huge hands. Let's say that he 3-bets TT+, AKo, AQo, and AJs in this spot. That's 48 combos that he's 3-betting. If you 4-bet, let's assume that he only continues with QQ+ (I think that's a reasonable assumption facing a 4-bet). That means that he's only continuing with 12 combos out of the original 48 (3 AA, 3 KK, 6 QQ), or in other words he is folding 75% of the time. If you think that the above is reasonable for this player then 4-betting is incredibly profitable.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 3,304 ✭✭✭✭
    First, I'd seriously consider 4-betting. You can fold to a 5-bet. If just called, you can c-bet fairly large on most flops and he's going to put you on a big pocket pair surely.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 2,546 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you are not going to four bet it certainly makes more sense to flat the suited ones and play poker from there, as you have.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 3,304 ✭✭✭✭
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    he ran a 3-bet bluff

    Which hands constitute a bluff, then?

  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 609 ✭✭✭
    more sense to flat the suited ones and play poker from there, as you have.

    Is this because I can float and hit BD FD on boards that will allow me more play-ability to C/C, C/R /w equity rather than say AKo which when it whiffs your relying on only overs to catch you up? Would you say your more incentivized to try to end the hand with AKo OOP due to this? I'm obviously seeing the merrit to 4-betting AK or AKo given his range and my perceived range, and I don't think at this level even against this opponent I need to go into a "balance my 3-bet call range with stronger hands to protect my weaker ones" since I'm only playing with this guy for like 5 hours and we will probably play 3-4 pots against each other total (this was the 1st heads up one).

    I guess the other thing is IF I decide to 4-bet to say $170-200, do I jam this same flop if he calls, or is that just chip suicide?
  • Christopher SChristopher S Red Chipper Posts: 53 ✭✭
    I think a great play in this spot for you since determined his 3-bet range, Instead of giving him a chance to hit a Q or J in this spot on the turn I think you should reraise his flop bet to 135 not quite 150

    .... If he calls the flop then on the turn falls that second nine. You can definitely represent that nine. You have an idea of his 3-bet range so you can assume that he might call here on the turn to a light bet because he's in for so much already you can act like you don't want to lose much of your stack so bet 1/2 or 1/3 pot.

    I think if you got called from worse you could only do that by raising the flop that way he continues with he KQ syle hands just to see the turn and river. Then since you know his range pretty well for three betting you could try to "bluff him off the river with a see where your at bet". meanwhile AK would most likely be good here according to preflop action and board runout based on opponent's details you gave.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 2,546 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @jfarrow13 yes; not exactly because you can still handle action with this hand; balance is underrated in low stakes games because people still put you on hands; if the spr is microscopic you can jam otherwise there is still room using smaller bets, which derive nicely from 3 bet theory.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 3,304 ✭✭✭✭
    edited February 21
    Well, there is some glitch on the site today, so let's see if we can try this again.
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    I guess the other thing is IF I decide to 4-bet to say $170-200, do I jam this same flop if he calls, or is that just chip suicide?

    So, let's do some math based on a potential hand he might have. Let's say he has :JD: :JC:. There's $400 in the pot and you shove $435, and he calls. This is the equivalent situation to him shoving and you calling, and it's a little easier to think of this in terms of the pot odds you're getting, since you're behind.

    :AS: :KS: has 30% equity in this situation. You're getting almost 2:1, or 1.9:1. To convert to percent, (1/(1+1.9)) = 35%, so you'd need a little more.

    (.30 *($435 + $435 + $400)) - $435 = -$54.

    So you lose about $55 in that situation. Can you make that up in fold equity? A villain isn't going to call with 100% certainty, so how much can you make up? You need to make $55. 55/400 = about 14%. 1/7 = about 14%, so if he folds 1 out of 7 times, you can show a profit with this play. I think it's pretty reasonable to assume you're going to get at least 1 in 7 folds, the way the hand went down.

    There are other hands he could have. He might have flopped a set of 9s. He might call with AQ. He might have AK in which case you're freerolling on the shove (actually a tad better, unless he has specifically :AD: :KD: or :AH: :KH:). He might fold 88 with higher % than he folds JJ. He might actually have AA. etc. You could write a much more complicated equation. There is some metagame as well - it's not a bad thing to be seen shoving ace high. So overall, I think this is a fine way to play the hand.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 609 ✭✭✭
    edited February 22
    I guess you could go either way, and like you said this turns into an extremely complicated equation. When I bet-4, I'm doing so because I blocked AA and KK, and it will be hard for him to continue with say 88-JJ (maybe not JJ) depending on my image. If he 5-bet's, we can safely fold (unless he's sick with AK himself and says "I blocked AA and KK, he most likely has JJ or QQ") so I can pick up the nice $87~ pot, uncontested. However, since he is a solid player, he may just flat a ton of his range, putting me on hands specifically QQ-AK (these are hands I'd likely 4-bet, OCCASIONALLY JJ, if I think he's doing it really light).


    Then as you noted, I'm shoving this flop every time with my entire range. I need some fold equity, and I think 17% is a reasonable #, and therefor this play is profitable as long as I play AK, QQ-AA here identically he won't be able to differentiate and in fact there combos are exactly the same (unless he has card removal, which he likely does unless he has JJ). So, I guess it comes down to play style preference. Do you prefer to take a slightly EV line IF he calls your 4-bet? Or do you want to go for the flat occasionally and play poker post, mixing it in with 4-betting (which I think is the best strategy, 4-bet AKs some of the time (specifically I think vs this opponent since he's doing this probably light it's the better line since I will pick up the pot frequently). This conversation could go on forever, but has certainly given me some new things to think about.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 542 ✭✭✭
    +1 @Ninjah You are basically saying he is doing this light

    Also, at some point you need to get this clown off your ass and have him start showing you a little respect. 4bettting can certainly do the trick

    I much prefer to do this with the bottom of my opening range but I want to do it quickly and as AKs is always 4 bet OOP for me now is as good as time as any
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 3,304 ✭✭✭✭
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    Then as you noted, I'm shoving this flop every time with my entire range. I need some fold equity, and I think 17% is a reasonable #, and therefor this play is profitable as long as I play AK, QQ-AA here identically he won't be able to differentiate....

    Right, so of course you have to be shoving the big pairs as well. Otherwise, you become one of those goofballs who only bets huge with bluffs and "gets tricky" with the big guns.

  • david wdavid w Red Chipper Posts: 54
    I think analyzing how to play post flop when villain calls is not a good use of time. It's unlikely to happen by the description of villain provided by the OP. If called, I would check fold most flops.

    Pre flop you have 3 options I'll list in order of what I think are the best plays.

    4 bet fold to 5 bet.
    Fold to the 3 bet.
    Call the 3 bet.

    You 4 bet because your hand blocks villains value continuation range, villain is 3 betting wide, you leverage his stack and there is a lot of money in the pot, stacks are deep enough to not commit you to having to call a 5 bet. Getting villain to fold hands that have equity (and all of his hands will have equity against AK) is where the profit comes.

    Folding here is better then calling because calling caps your range, it will be difficult realize your equity and hard to extract value when you have the best hand.

    As for calling. See above.

    Put yourself in villains shoes. If you have jacks or queens, you can only continue if you think they are ahead of your 4 bet range. If they are you shove you don't call.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 609 ✭✭✭
    Calling caps my range at....what hands exactly? AK, AQs, 10, JJ and QQ? No sir, not against this opponent. I'd flat a wide array of hands here. We are pretty deep. I have a ton of play ability with a wide array of hands. I think folding is a joke. As you can see, I'm not playing AK fit/fold. He doesn't have to have 99-AA + AK/AQ here. He can just think I'm opening too wide with too many hands when it's limped to me, and he's seen me fold about 3-4 times when someone 3-bets me, and call no 3-bets (none of which were him). Now yes, against the OLC who when I opened to $17 another time 3-bet me to $50 and I tank like I'm thinking about calling with K9o and fold and she flips AA, yeah....I think I may even consider laying down AK. But...na...just na...
  • david wdavid w Red Chipper Posts: 54
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    Calling caps my range at....what hands exactly? AK, AQs, 10, JJ and QQ? No sir, not against this opponent. I'd flat a wide array of hands here. We are pretty deep. I have a ton of play ability with a wide array of hands. I think folding is a joke. As you can see, I'm not playing AK fit/fold. He doesn't have to have 99-AA + AK/AQ here. He can just think I'm opening too wide with too many hands when it's limped to me, and he's seen me fold about 3-4 times when someone 3-bets me, and call no 3-bets (none of which were him). Now yes, against the OLC who when I opened to $17 another time 3-bet me to $50 and I tank like I'm thinking about calling with K9o and fold and she flips AA, yeah....I think I may even consider laying down AK. But...na...just na...

    Your mind seems made up... Okay
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 609 ✭✭✭
    I wasn't trying to be a dick, but I guess it came off like that. But if you think option 2 is better than option 3 of flatting, I think you are over folding. When you 4-bet AK here yes I pick up the pot a lot of times, and I can safety fold to a 5-bet, but my hands seemed to be hand-cuffed to a slightly EV play when he flat as I am forced to jam this board with my range (it's great when I have AA or KK here but as said it's AK...gotta pray for folds) Longer term profitable, but still this isn't my favorite outcome.


    Just out of curiosity, what do you file into your 3-bet call range? If your folding AK, what are you calling? And for what purpose do you call with those hands? Do you file 98s into the call range? What about 33? Why call with 33? Are we hoping to set mine? What about 98s? Are we hoping to smash the flop? What if we flop top pair and bet and he raises? Are we forced to fold? What if we check and he bets when we flop top pair with 98s. I could see where you are coming from with the perception that "any flat of a 3-bet is KQ, AQ, AKo JJ or QQ that can't fold to the 3-bet but also can't 4-bet".


    This is typical poker at $1-2 ABC, but as I've said this guy is a strong player, adept at hand reading and has seen me open too much. To be clear, I'd call this 3-bet with many hands such as suited connectors a % of the time, 66-JJ (4-betting jacks about 30% of the time), QQ (4-betting them roughly 50%), AQo AQs (4-betting 25%~) ect, as well as flatting or 3-betting AK and AKs between 50-60% of the time. This way, my hands aren't face up and I have a wide variety of holding that both call, and 4-bet. I believe this is the key to a balanced strategy that will be hard to exploit with 3-betting.
  • david wdavid w Red Chipper Posts: 54
    I don't know where to begin. Let me start by saying I don't necessarily disagree with anything you said in the posts I read. Folding AK here seems extreme and I believe it to be a small mistake. By small I mean relative to the stack sizes not the size of the current pot. If you could call this 3 bet and be all in then folding here is a huge blunder. What I was trying to illustrate in my post (rather poorly) is that calling sets you up to make more mistakes where the pot is larger and the mistakes are more costly. Sometimes that is just how it is and you have to play poker. 4 betting allows you to avoid these potential mistakes and set's up a situation for villain to make a mistake.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 609 ✭✭✭
    Gotcha. I see what you mean, but that's why I said the 4-bet and he calls leaves it a huge pot ($400) with me having $400 behind and my hands are tied basically. Just calling the 3-bet for $60 (sure $120) 5 SPR not huge not tiny, but still leaves a ton of wiggle room in terms of play ability. Now, based on V's flop bet, I'd have a lot of different decisions (and this is what makes poker so fun and interesting!) $65 1/2 potting it..., vs say if he made it $95. $95 is a more polarizing bet. $65 gives minimal information (and is a solid sizing by him but also has it's disadvantages) because it reveals nothing about his hand, but also doesn't give a ton of info about mine when I call. $95...is much more weighted towards "I want to get stacks in by the river" or "I have air...and I just want the pot. GIMME THE POT". Anyways, I don't wanna elaborate further on flop betting sizing and information, as I think this thread has exhausted itself, but certain gave me a few new things to think about.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 2,546 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well, I know where to begin. First off, setting up mistakes goes both ways. When you flat a hand you should be theoretically be raising, such as AK, you discount it from your perceived range. This means you can play a pot with your opponent at a handreading disadvantage. Advantage to the flatter.

    Whether it's ripping in all your draws or always pressing equity preflop, taking a rote approach, a theme today, is definitely reasonable but ultimately too simple in a complex game.

    For you pressing AK is "playing poker," for tagmeister Kagey, as he has said many times, it's playing postflop. I'd avoid choosing sides so strongly.
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 511 ✭✭✭
    As a small aside, 4b folding AK for these sizes is a highly exploitable play.
  • david wdavid w Red Chipper Posts: 54
    Yosh wrote: »
    As a small aside, 4b folding AK for these sizes is a highly exploitable play.

    Exilent point.

    If villain is capable of exploiting 4 - bet folding that would drastically change my views on how best to play this hand.

    Having him on my left. I'd ask for a table change.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 3,304 ✭✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    balance is underrated in low stakes games because people still put you on hands;

    I would like to hear you expound on this in a separate thread or blog article.

  • david wdavid w Red Chipper Posts: 54
    FYI: I did this for myself and thought if might be of interest. If anyone finds an error in my math please let me kmow.

    3 limpers = 15
    Hero open raise = 20
    Villain 3 bet = 60
    SB = 2
    BB = 5
    Pot = 102

    Stack = 635 - 20 = 615
    Hero stack after 4 bet = 455

    Hero 4 bet to 180
    Bluffs Needs fold for mediate profit = 160 / (160 + 102) = 61%

    Pot = 262
    Villain bluff shoves with A5s 26.661% against AA KK
    So EV when called by a range AA and KK = (635 + 635 + 2 + 5 + 15) * 26.661 = 1292 * 26.661 = 344.46

    Shove = 455 - villains 60 3 bet = 395
    Bluffs Needs fold for mediate profit without equity consideration = 395 / (395 + 262) = 395 / 657 = 60%
    With equity = 395 / (657 + 344.46) = 395 / 1001.46 = 39.44%

    So if hero only raises AA and KK for value and bluffs with AKo he will have a bluff to value ratio of 1 to 1 (12 to 12) or 50% and can be exploited by villain bluffing with a hand as week as A5s.

  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 1,792 ✭✭✭✭
    edited February 24
    @jfarrow13 ... just between u and me and the lampost... if you don't 4-bet AKs... then what exactly IS your 4-betting range... 6 combos of AA?

    also, say you 4-bet and fold out QJs or KQos or AQs... how is that ever bad?
    you have air... no pair... and a hope and a dream.

    if you could have 90-someodd chips in one hand with a fold...or AKs oop in the other with hope....wouldn't chips now make more cents???

    your getting a lot of good thought-provoking insights here.... yet you seemed determine to take an @Austin - like approach that only has one answer.

    i encourage you to replay this hand like you were Soto or Berkey or have a cool $1 mill in the bank. would you change your analysis then?
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 609 ✭✭✭
    I am simply saying that I don't take a binary approach with my AKs. I don't think I should smash 4-bet 4-bet 4-bet every time. I've already conceded vs this opponent that the $90 pick up no contest is the better play here . Of course I 4-bet it. I've written threads where I'm 4-betting it, as well as calling off 4-bet all-ins with it. But as @persuadeo pointed out, there are merrits to flatting as well. Optimal? Up for debate.

    @david w your example is a good point but unrealistic. First off, 3 limpers = $15. Your raise to $20? You are laying too good a price. $30+ $20-$25 is my $2-5 open with no one in front of me. Add a BB for every limper. Anyways, how many times have you or a V made a sick 4-bet bluff
  • david wdavid w Red Chipper Posts: 54
    jfarrow13 wrote: »

    @david w your example is a good point but unrealistic. First off, 3 limpers = $15. Your raise to $20? You are laying too good a price. $30+ $20-$25 is my $2-5 open with no one in front of me. Add a BB for every limper. Anyways, how many times have you or a V made a sick 4-bet bluff

    The $20 was from the original post. A 1 -2 game. The math was from your game.


  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 609 ✭✭✭