FLH vs NLH BR + variance

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
Why is the bankroll requirement for limit holdem smaller than No limit when limit is suppose to have more variance.

Recreational bankroll
NL 20 buyins
FL 300 BB

@ 1\2 NL that's $4,000
@ 4\8 FL thats $2,400

Swingyness
4-10 buyins is standard for NL ($800-$2000)
50-150 bb is standard for FL ($400-$1200)

I understand the variance is higher in limit because you can't charge people enough for their draws.

Do the above statments mean its higher variance but less swingyness?

Ive also read the great poker players in NL can win up to 90% of their sessions. Where as FL great players are more of 60-70%.

Largest win rate @1\2 over large sample 10bb ($20\hr) largest win rate @ 4\8 over large sample ($22\hr 2.75bb)

Largest downswing from a winning player in FL 1500bb $12,000
Largest downswing NL 50 buyins ($10,000)
*largest swings i used low stakes as a unit of measure but the swing itself happened to good poker players at a higher level.

Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Swings are higher in FL but the potential money risked per hand is less - I'm sure there some better math term for this that is escaping me for the moment.

    Also this is a very liberal use of the word "bankroll" here. A recreational player needs no bankroll unless you are imagining a scenario where he has to quit forever if he busts it.
  • Jim MJim M Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    I don't agree that the variance is greater in FL. In NL, mistakes cost more, the largest possible cost of -EV scenarios are realized, and draw-outs cost relatively more. For example: set over set in NL will mostly go for stacks barring an action-stopping run-out. In limit, barring one seat being a complete idiot, the variance is capped by number of big bets. For simplicity, let's say: 4x10+ 4x10 + 4x20+ 4x20 = 240 in a 10/20 game you buy in for 500.

    I don't know where you're pulling your numbers from.

    I'm this is all moot. If you have great limit games that are a good use of your time, the only way it hurts you to play is if your winrate is less than your usual NL game. The rest is academic.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2017
    Variance is a specific statistical definition that we abuse in poker for "swings" or most absurdly, luck. Win rates and variance are not directly connected, whereas winrates are key to Risk of Ruin, which is really what Austin is - or should be - worried about.

    It is highly likely that the technical "variance" of a poker player's results is indeed higher in NL, while not changing the fact that limit bankrolls are generally far too small for the short term swings one can endure.

    300 BBs is low, no matter how you want to look at this.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭✭
    Jim M wrote: »
    I don't agree that the variance is greater in FL. In NL, mistakes cost more, the largest possible cost of -EV scenarios are realized, and draw-outs cost relatively more. For example: set over set in NL will mostly go for stacks barring an action-stopping run-out. In limit, barring one seat being a complete idiot, the variance is capped by number of big bets. For simplicity, let's say: 4x10+ 4x10 + 4x20+ 4x20 = 240 in a 10/20 game you buy in for 500.

    I don't know where you're pulling your numbers from.

    I'm this is all moot. If you have great limit games that are a good use of your time, the only way it hurts you to play is if your winrate is less than your usual NL game. The rest is academic.

    You go to showdown much more in FL which is what increases variance. You can't force many folds with aggressive actions since the bet size is limited.
  • Jim MJim M Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    I don't know what the policy is for cross site linking here. Austin, I suggest you Google: risk of ruin limit Holden twoplustwo. Limit was still in its heyday when that site dominated the online poker conversation. You'll get all you need.

    Looking back on my post, by comment of:
    I don't know where you're pulling your numbers from

    may have come across more blunt than I intended. Sorry if that was the case. Austin, I meant it genuinely. I see a post with a bunch of numbers without reference, footnote or mathematical demonstration and that always has a hard time passing my scepticism test.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As I study more limit I am noticing preflop it plays very similar to shallow stack NL game in terms of hand ranges. Of course there are some 3 bets and 4 bets that happen more in FLH with hands like 99 or KQs but pretty similar starting hand ranges. Only the line that you take with the hand changes. I think the biggest difference is dropping 22-77 vs one raiser as well as most SCs below J10s. It really is a high card, high pocket pair, and high suited card game.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,253 ✭✭✭✭
    Hands that can make the nuts in a game where it's hard to prevent people from realizing their equity? Shucks.
  • Jim MJim M Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    As I study more limit I am noticing preflop it plays very similar to shallow stack NL game in terms of hand ranges. Of course there are some 3 bets and 4 bets that happen more in FLH with hands like 99 or KQs but pretty similar starting hand ranges. Only the line that you take with the hand changes. I think the biggest difference is dropping 22-77 vs one raiser as well as most SCs below J10s. It really is a high card, high pocket pair, and high suited card game.

    I would resist the temptation to find commonalities between NL and FL - either direction.

    I also don't agree with your recipe. It depends on the position of the raise and the player. For example, if some generic MP opened-raised, folded to me in the CO->BB, I'm 3-betting any pocket pair, many SCs, and most broadway and plan to barrel flops and turns as most hands are obligated to call a flop getting 7.5-1 but can't call a turn or will improperly fold getting 4-1.

    But, if that's the typical action, I would also look to change tables. In limit, I would want a table that sees 4-6 players to a flop regularly and they're easy tables to find. I prefer to fight for bigger pots - and, to me, limit is a scrum.

    Please look for more than strictly value. Here's a pretty common scenario:

    Hero on button: KdQc
    UTG raises.
    MP calls.
    Hero calls.
    BB calls.

    4 players
    Flop: AcKh9c
    8SB
    UTG bets
    MP calls
    Hero calls
    BB calls.

    4 players
    Turn: 8c
    Pot: 6BB
    UTG bets
    MP raises
    Hero 3-bets
    BB folds
    UTG folds
    MP calls

    2 players
    River: 2s
    Pot: 13BB
    MP checks
    Hero checks

    As the action played, Hero would have bet any club river, any ace, any K, and any Q. If there were more callers, Hero value bets the same range. If Hero was 4-bet into on the turn, Hero calls all river bets, and raises any K or club and probably raise any Q unless the villain is an obvious squeezer.

    Not exactly a no-limit line.

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