What's the best course of action here?
Yanming Z
Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
1/3 game. V is a relatively unknown, have folded for a couple orbits and this is the first hand he played since sat down. V has $400 and hero covers.
V limps from UTG, H raise to $15 in the HJ with
, button, BB, and V calls.
Flop ($60):
, check, check, H bets $40, fold, fold, and V calls,
Turn ($140):
check, H bets $60, V raises to $200, leaving himself ~$175 behind. H?
H down bet on the turn to give sets and Ad attractive but incorrect price to draw, and cheap enough for top pair and 2P to call 1 more street.
So what's the best line here?
1. Go ahead and Jam, because if V is overplaying a set, lesser flush, or making a move with Ad, he would be obligated to call it off getting almost 5:1. Also have to account for the spaz factor because the turn bet was small.
2. Fold, this may seem tight, but if V is decently competent, I'm drawing dead to all of his value range.
3. Call and evaluate river. This is probably the worst way to go because it's giving sets and Ad a free roll to beat the Q high flush. And it's probably gonna be a disaster to fold the river getting 5:1.
Thoughts?
V limps from UTG, H raise to $15 in the HJ with
, button, BB, and V calls.Flop ($60):
, check, check, H bets $40, fold, fold, and V calls,Turn ($140):
check, H bets $60, V raises to $200, leaving himself ~$175 behind. H?H down bet on the turn to give sets and Ad attractive but incorrect price to draw, and cheap enough for top pair and 2P to call 1 more street.
So what's the best line here?
1. Go ahead and Jam, because if V is overplaying a set, lesser flush, or making a move with Ad, he would be obligated to call it off getting almost 5:1. Also have to account for the spaz factor because the turn bet was small.
2. Fold, this may seem tight, but if V is decently competent, I'm drawing dead to all of his value range.
3. Call and evaluate river. This is probably the worst way to go because it's giving sets and Ad a free roll to beat the Q high flush. And it's probably gonna be a disaster to fold the river getting 5:1.
Thoughts?
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Comments
Not sure how you can assume he is competent just because he folded a couple of orbits?
Let's assume he is a tight player, we can eliminate some Kxs and probably 75s from his UTG range.
This leaves 6 combos of A2-A9s in his range. Does he have any other flushes? Most of them are blocked by your hand or the board. Maybe K9s but still has you beat.
If he is competent then he is not check raising a set on this turn nor limping with them. Maybe he limps 66 or 88 if he is nitty.
Given your blockers I have a hard time finding strong hands besides nut flush in villains range. Maybe 2 combos of J9s, but you said he was tight.
I think in order of options
1) call and evaluate river
2) jam and chalk it up to a cooler
3) fold.
I know you said call and evaluate is the worst option but I'll have to disagree for now given the combos and blockers.
The nit in me says to fold because I almost never see them raise with worse here.
Also he is unknown and the first hand he played he limp called, I read that as a sign of a bad player even if he had the discipline to wait a few orbits to play a hand. The raise size and timing is also kind of weird to me. It's enough to deny odds to a single large diamond drawing to the flush. Is he putting you on that hand and trying to shut you down?
I see that beautiful gutshot straight flush draw and talk myself into this call. If you fold this hand here what hands are you calling off with? Just the nuts?
I do think Austin is right and most 1/3 players have AX of diamonds in this spot but there is enough weird things going on that I am not folding a flush here.
On the flop, Hero bets 66% of the pot into 4 players and a monochrome board.
On the turn, Hero bets 43% of the pot - or 20$ more than flop bet - into 1 player.
It's also totally possible that Villain think you're bluffing or drawing with
First of all, I don't think we can call turn and fold river. Turn is the leverage point, we have to take a decision here.
Jam isn't good. I think we can get called only by better. It would be too fancy to play the nuts like that (underbet turn to trigger a raise and 3bet shove), esp. against an unknown. It screams made flush.
I see but a 4th option:
4) calling turn raise and call/stab shove any river.
We take the decision to play for stacks on turn and want to let Villain bet their raising range (straight / set) into our flush.
For example, if you bet $100, most players calculate this (assuming they're doing anything at all other than "I has nut flush draw") is by adding the pot and your remaining stack. So you would have $250 remaining, there's $140 in the pot and they have to call $100. That's almost exactly the 4:1 they need. Only you know if you'll actually pay that much. That's the better way to gain an advantage, rather than underbetting (assuming
Personally, I'm never folding here given the information you gave. I'd need a much better read to fold. Just stick it in there. You say you're dead to his "value range", but again I think you're overestimating how strongly they believe you have a flush here.
@Red this is not true. People used this in the past, but vs a 3rd barrel the range gets stronger in general.
Most people are probably burning money saying if they call turn they have to call river. Most people are willing to bet flop and turn but they give up on the river.
@jfarrow13 what lower flushes can Villain have that limps UTG and is probably a tight player after folding for a couple orbits? Do you think a set will check call flop & check raise turn with half of their stack?
I would be shocked to see anything worse than ace high flush here. A tight passive player comes to life and were supposed to give him worse hands?
On the turn Hero would have to call $140 to win 400 getting (2.85 : 1 or 26%). It's not exactly terrible odds with the nut flush, but he does deny hero odds to call. At the same time though $200 is rather standard here for a raise being about 3.5x the turn bet. The turn bet just looks way stronger because Villain left $175 behind, which screams he is not scared of any river card. I do think a bet of $150-$175 would have been better for the villain, but that size also just screams value.
You saying hero can't fold this hand because he would only be calling off with the nuts here, which is fine given the fact that the villain is basically only repping the nuts. I think folding a hand like this can make you a very big winner in this game once you can, in real time eliminate all the other worse flushes from villain's range.
Similar to the never fold KK preflop debate. If your 300bb deep or even only 200bb deep and you know they only 4 bet KK and AA and you hold KK it is really not that hard of a fold. On the other end they are never folding KK when you have AA and this is what separates the great players from the good players.
If this was a higher stake game or playing against a more competent player where we had some history I could see him making a move like you said with
In this particular case though, if H calls the turn, a shove by the villain on the river will cost the hero $175 to win a pot of $715. Getting almost 5:1 H only need to win 17% of the time to call. Though I agree with that the river bet gives extra info, and it's sometimes correct to fold even if the board texture stayed the same, but that only applies to a normal (1/2-2/3 PSB) sized bet. When H is getting a such sick price, factors like spazz factor, over playing, and hopeless bluffs has to be accounted for.
So I agree with @Red , in this particular hand, I don't think it's ever correct to call turn and fold the river.