Hand 13: TT on 982

NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,125 ✭✭✭✭
I think that a player who is playing nearly half of their hands, even over a small sample is more likely to have a static opening range from the CO and it would be fairly wide. CO’s open range:
AA-22,AKo-A5o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s,43s 422 combos 39% open

Workbook Questions: Worst Kx hand K8o, worst Qx hand Q8o

When we 3-bet, Villian’s calling range: TT-22,AQo-AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AQs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s 179 combos 14.6%

Workbook Questions: AQ call, KJs call, 88 call

Flop: :9d :8c :2c

Down to 164 combos on the flop. Although it is a very small sample, Villain has an AF of 6 so I expect him to shove a lot of draws in this spot. I expect him to shove sets, two pair, straight draws, and all flush draws and overpairs (TT). Shoving 29 out of 164 combos for 17.7%.

Workbook Questions: JT shove, 9x call, KcQc shove

With the shoving range I assigned Villain, we have about 37% equity.

EV calculation: (.37*50.32) - (.63*50.07) = - $13 EV

We should fold to his shove.

Comments

  • JoskroketJoskroket Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    edited January 2017
    shouldn't the formula for EV calculations be. EV=(% we win * entire pot)-(% we loose * our bet)? I rounded the numbers to make it easy. total pot = 63$ (preflop+cbet+villain allin) + 37$ (from our call) = 100$. that would make the EV: (.37*100)-(.63*37)= +14$
    So it's actually a clear call.
    Then handreading itself I reached the same conclusions.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,125 ✭✭✭✭
    Joskroket wrote: »
    shouldn't the formula for EV calculations be. EV=(% we win * entire pot)-(% we loose * our bet)? I rounded the numbers to make it easy. total pot = 63$ (preflop+cbet+villain allin) + 37$ (from our call) = 100$. that would make the EV: (.37*100)-(.63*37)= +14$
    So it's actually a clear call.
    Then handreading itself I reached the same conclusions.

    You're probably right as I've never done an EV calc before. I read somewhere that it was profit so I calculated it from that rather than what was in the pot.
  • bk1122bk1122 Red Chipper Posts: 1
    From an earlier splitsuit article I believe that Ninjah had it correct the first time. In the article and video here (http://www.splitsuit.com/simple-poker-expected-value-formula), we do not include the call in the winning money for the calculator. I ended up with a similar result as Ninjah with $-5.5 EV indicating we should fold.

    I'd appreciate any feedback if I'm misunderstanding the EV calculations.

    New to the forums and really enjoying the information. Looking forward to getting more involved!
  • JoskroketJoskroket Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    edited February 2017
    You are right. Got that totally wrong. You can't edit posts after 15 minutes which is really annoying. When doing EV calculations you don't include your own call in the formula for the win part. That is only for the loose part. First part of the formula, what you can win, is the total pot that is already in there. The second part, what you can loose, is your call amount.
  • LudoLudo Red Chipper Posts: 1 ✭✭
    edited May 2017
    Hi. How often you win times the current pot minus how often you lose times what you have to call (.37*63.32)-(.63*37.07)=0.0743 which gives us an even money situation (that is with our equity at 37%). We can verify with pot odds: we have 1.7:1 odds to call that All-In (63.32pot/37.07tocall), that means we need 37% to break even.
    I assigned that type of player a wider range including Top Pair, increasing our equity to 43% and making the call +EV at +$6.
  • Brendan RBrendan R Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    I liked this exercise because I realized that, in this spot, V is very weighted towards big draws and a few sets. We can eliminate overpairs because he would've 4-bet them preflop. You could really narrow him down to just na few combos of things assuming it's not a bluff shove
  • Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 202 ✭✭✭
    bk1122 wrote: »
    From an earlier splitsuit article I believe that Ninjah had it correct the first time. In the article and video here (http://www.splitsuit.com/simple-poker-expected-value-formula), we do not include the call in the winning money for the calculator. I ended up with a similar result as Ninjah with $-5.5 EV indicating we should fold.

    I'd appreciate any feedback if I'm misunderstanding the EV calculations.

    New to the forums and really enjoying the information. Looking forward to getting more involved!

    You only include the money you put into the pot when calculating how often villains needs to fold in order for you to win the pot by taking it down at that exact moment.

    If the pot is $100, and you bet $100, you divide your bet by the existing pot and your bet, so $100/($100+$100) = 0.5, so villain needs to fold at least 50% of the time for our bet to be successful.

    This has nothing to with calculating hand/pot-equity, as correctly pointed out by you.
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 70 ✭✭
    This is a great hand/exercise due to the +/- "EV's" you get by just changing Villian's shoving range just a bit either way. Just adding or removing a few combos makes the difference between calling or folding.
  • Blade76Blade76 Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    Hi!
    So i have for this Hand the following assumptions:

    His opening range:
    AA-22,AKo-A5o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s

    33% or 403 combos

    His calling range:
    TT-22,AQo-AJo,KQo,AJs-A2s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s

    17% or 205 combos

    Flop: :9d :8c :2c

    I think his flop shove would be pretty wide here (all FD and OESD)

    TT-88,22,A9s,K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs,98s,76s,AcJc,AcTc,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Qc9c,Jc9c,Tc9c,9c7c,7c5c,6c5c,6c4c,5c4c
    25% or 45 combos of his previous range

    so the EQ till the river is then 50,78% -> the EV is (0.63*50.78)-(0.37*49.22) = +13,92 $

    so we call his all-in

  • dqlgnolehtdqlgnoleht Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    At my stake (NL10) I think QQ, JJ still in his calling 3BET range, even, AA, KK if he is tricky player. With the sample size 23, not much of information so I don't think his range is so wide, his opening range like this: AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o,54o,43o,32o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s

    And his calling 3BET range: QQ-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A9s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s,43s,32s

    I totally agree with the idea that his shoving range on flop includes monster draw, set, 2 pair +, top pair + FD ... But JJ,QQ still on his range so his shoving range: QQ-88,22,98s,AcKc,AcQc,AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,QcJc,QcTc,Qc9c,JcTc,Jc9c,Tc9c,9c7c,7c6c,7c5c,6c5c

    With this range, our TT has 30% equity.
    EV = (0.3 * 64) - (0.7 * 37) = -$6.7

    If I include AA, KK on his calling 3BET preflop range and shoving range, EV can reduce more, so IMO, I will fold that hand.

    But, if he is the guy that can shove top pair on that board, the call is +$EV.
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 70 ✭✭
    I agree with dqlg...almost all his FD shoves are overcards...(my assigned range) we have no club blockers and one clean out. Even his TP shoves (of which IMO he has few) are 1/2 combo draws. I won't be calling here for this price. I can absolutely see him flatting JJ+ much of the time in position . It's break even MAYBE at best

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