74s

blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 208 ✭✭
Live 1/2

Hero ($700) raises $15 on the button with :7H::4H:
MP1 ($500 eff.) calls

Flop ($30)
:7D::4D::KS:

V bets $40
Hero raises $120
V calls

Turn ($270)
:5C:

Villain checks
Hero shoves

*notes
Im 8 hours into the session, feeling great, I've got pretty much every opp. on the table ranged out and haven't ran into any surprises. I keep catching broadway cards and havent been dealt anything in the sc/gapper range so I picked this up OTB and felt it was time to squeeze it up. MP1 is a middle aged guy, loves to play, loves to call, hates folding, and Ive been driving him nuts at showdown all day. The pf call takes out QQ-AA/trash hands/AQs-AKs and leaves pretty much everything else. The flop hits, I see him grin and lead out for $40 in a confident manner. I take out any draws and put him on either AKo with a diamond, KQo with a diamond, and mayyybe KQs. I'm confident in my read, a bit worried about KQs so I go ahead and raise it up with intentions of folding to running diamonds, calling to a diamond if odds are appropriate, and shoving any turn brick. Im perfectly fine with taking it down on the flop, I raise and he's very upset. I wouldnt say he's tanking so much as wallowing, this goes on for about 3 minutes, and he finally makes the call. The turn bricks, he's unhappy, I shove.

Thoughts?

Comments

  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭✭
    How many limpers before you, and from where?
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 208 ✭✭
    Only MP1 limped, folded around
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭✭
    Pre and flop I think are good FWIW. I would not be so quick to discount his draws based on his donk lead. Also, have you seen him limp AKo and KQo?

    Even still... turn I reckon you get a call from plenty of draws, very little that you could be behind. Maybe you risk letting him get away from weak Kx that he may otherwise turn into a river bluff?
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 208 ✭✭
    Yes, I was playing on a very funky table; players were prone to limping everything, I adjusted by raising damn near everytime I played a hand. My pfr was prolly like 90% and fold to 3bet was prolly like 75% (ill raise 15 utg shoves hm i wonder what he has)

    Eh, I dunno, his demeanor suggested what was in his mind extreme strength when that flop hit, so in my mind he's made and might be freerolling. Im contemplating now where the pot size would be on the river if I had let him keep the lead.
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    Just an idea, not saying it's optimal. Maybe size down on the turn, letting him continue with his Kx hands, but also giving him a very juicy incentive to check jam his flush draw + pair / straight draw hands? I dunno, maybe that's getting too fancy.
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭✭
    MichaelB wrote: »
    Just an idea, not saying it's optimal. Maybe size down on the turn, letting him continue with his Kx hands, but also giving him a very juicy incentive to check jam his flush draw + pair / straight draw hands? I dunno, maybe that's getting too fancy.

    I think this is good, actually. I miscalculated V to 260 behind on turn instead of 360.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 208 ✭✭
    Ok, so that said what would be a good sizing for turn? 180, leaving 180 for V?
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    edited February 25
    $180 would probably leave him doubting he has any fold equity.

    I was actually thinking more like $100, which would be enough so that he's not getting direct odds to call with a naked flush draw, putting him in a really awkward spot chip wise and might even force him to check jam.

    It would also have the added benefit of possibly convincing him that you're the one on a combo draw, sizing your bet for a $260 river shove if you miss, increasing the likelihood that you he bluff catches with his Kx hands, non-diamond hands.

    This is obv a much more high variance play than jamming the turn, but as Paul pointed out, since you're almost always good here, albeit vulnerable, it might have been the more profitable play.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭✭
    Opening 74s is turning you into a maniac. Except with strong read or very weak folder V, it's not a hand I'd play except when I spazz out and would play ATC.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 473 ✭✭✭
    Yeah agree with Red. While you are on the button, you said your read on V is that he doesn't like to fold. So how do you play this hand when the flop comes A92 rainbow? I think based on your read on the player, after he limps, you know you aren't going to steal his limp and the blinds very often. It's cool to nab 2 pair, but without two pair I think it would have been hard to win this hand given that you note that V is hanging in until showdown. Think the play preflop here does not line up with the read on V.
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    I agree with Red and Jordan. Trying to bluff stations isn't ideal. If he limp/calls a lot, size up your post-flop bets and preflop 3bets with your value hands and get more money in. That's how you stack him. Not getting lucky with rags.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 208 ✭✭
    I gotta disagree here; I'd been playing broadway cards all day and everybody at the table is noticing. If I completely miss the flop its a simple c/f against this guy just like any other hand. The only thing that keeps me in a hand otherwise is 2 overcards and while im certainly not catchin those with this hand my implied odds with any open ender, combo draw,
    or 2pair+ combined with my perceived range and position makes this a good oppurtunity to squeeze imo.
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    @blindraise Who are we squeezing with this move? Your OP says V limps, you raise from the BU, and he calls.

    There doesn't appear to be anyone that we're squeezing...
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 208 ✭✭
    Its essentially a squeeze play. No im not 3betting but im raising with the same intentions; if I was 3bet I intended to 4bet and fold to a 5bet. Not sure what the correct terminology would be for such a maneuver but if the wording was foolish im sure youre bright enough to figure out what im really trying to say.

    Anyways, I started doing some plugging, and while a brick flop is obviously a fold pretty much anything I connect with gives me decent equity for V's continuing range.

    Against a range of A8o-AKo/A2s-AJs/K8o-KQo/K2s-KJs/Q9o-QJo/Q6s-QJs/J5s-JTs/T7o-T9o/T6s-T9s/97s-96s/86s-85s/98s-32s/22-JJ

    Flop equity =

    Brick: 15%
    Pair w/ overs: 51.2%
    Pair w/ overs + BD flush: 53.3%
    Pair w/ overs + BD straight: 62.8%
    Pair w/ overs + BD combo: 64.4%
    Gutshot facing over: 28.9%
    Gutshot + BD flush facing over: 31.9%
    Gutshot + flush facing over: 52.1%
    Open ender facing over: 42.5%
    Open ender + backdoor flush facing over: 44.7%
    Open ender + flush draw facing over: 60.8%
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    I have to disagree with "it's essentially a squeeze play." A squeeze play is used with the intent to fold out people who flat behind an open. We take advantage of their projected weakness by raising. So if it's just V and us, we're not squeezing anyone. This is just a bluff raise.

    If you want to exploit your table image, since you've been cardracking, you'd want to do that against NITs and passive players. You'll never convince me that raising to 7.5BB pre with rags against a station is a good strategy.

    How often do you think 74s bricks the flop?

    Your strategy boils down to raising rags pre against a V who doesn't fold, and folding to any bet, unless we crush the flop. Statistically, you'll miss the flop way more often than not. And even when you do connect, it's likely you're still beat.

    I don't mean to come across as rude, but I think you got rewarded for a bad play. And now you're looking for validation that it wasn't as bad as it looks.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 208 ✭✭
    66% of the time youre going to miss

    I'm not playing to crush a flop, I'd be inclined to take a bottom pair to showdown with this opponent if he lets me.

    And actually I lost the pot.

    V tanked for over 5 minutes, a player at the table called clock and he called after the 30 second warning and tabled :KD::QH:

    River was a :KC:

    So I was correct in my read postflop but wanted to see if I receive any criticisms in my line (not terminology usage, but thanks for that little critique anyway, now I know).

    As to @MichaelB I think against this particular opp. the turn shove was actually the higher variance play given the frequency at which this V calls. I think I like your idea better for the turn play.
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    blindraise wrote: »
    So I was correct in my read postflop but wanted to see if I receive any criticisms in my line (not terminology usage, but thanks for that little critique anyway, now I know).

    I'll tell you the same thing I tell some of our employees when I give them similar critiques. In order for us to have a meaningful discussion about your desires and actions, and implement constructive criticisms and corrections if needed, we need to be able to effectively communicate. And using terminology in an incorrect manner can directly impact the quality of that discussion. If you use a term in an incorrect manner, it makes us question your line of thought.

    As played, I don't mind the turn shove. It puts diamond draws in a tough spot. And we'll likely get called by any K.

  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭✭
    I like having this play in our playbook... an iso on the button vs a single limper. But it is very opponent specific. And it's hard to argue with the point that this is not the ideal opponent.
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    I think everyone has a good point, I don't mind raising a hand like this on a nitty table full of people watching movies on their phones, but against a guy like this, it really does feel like you'll be pushing water up hill most of the time. Long term, even if you have him outskilled, it's still probably breakeven. Much better option to limp along for cheap in my opinion, and sticking to a tighter selection of suited connectors (like 56-89) to balance out your iso range with.

    Sorry to hear about the King.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 473 ✭✭✭
    blindraise wrote: »
    66% of the time youre going to miss

    Even when we hit though, because more than half the deck is overs to us, we can only rely on 2 pair plus being a true hit. And you don't hit 2 pair 34% of the time.

    I just think playing this hand against a station puts us in some weird postflop spots we don't want to be in. How about a flop of A79r. We cbet and get called. Well do we feel great about this? Probably not too too great, right? What's the plan postflop when you just hit a single pair? When you miss, I think you've noted you're going to check back?
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 208 ✭✭
    @Jordan Power
    The thing about this particular statuon was he was pretty much wearing his cards on his forehead.

    If I think he's bluffing I'm calling down, if I think he's betting for value, I'll either float or fold depending on his sizing.

    A miss is always going to be a check back, and ill be chasing alot of draws since my implied odds are great.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 473 ✭✭✭
    blindraise wrote: »
    @Jordan Power
    The thing about this particular statuon was he was pretty much wearing his cards on his forehead.

    If I think he's bluffing I'm calling down, if I think he's betting for value, I'll either float or fold depending on his sizing.

    A miss is always going to be a check back, and ill be chasing alot of draws since my implied odds are great.

    If he was 'wearing his cards on his forehead' wouldn't you know whether he was bluffing or not? I'm not trying to be obtuse but I just don't think you're profile of V makes any sense with how the hand was played.

  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 208 ✭✭
    @Jordan Power

    I mean I have my instincts but a man can still be bluffing with the best hand; I won a $300 pot against him a couple hours earlier with a pair of 3's, he said he thought I was bluffing (I was) and called down with A high.

    What doesnt make sense? I hit 2pair and tried to get paid by the station. I get the hand selection argument; it makes sense and I'm definitely going to save situations like this for a different opponent,

    but what I'm wondering now is how the hand would've played out if I had limped? Surely the small and big blind wouldve came along, but how would I feel about bottom 2 then? Gotta start worrying about K4/K7 continuing, maybe MP1 wouldnt have appeared so confident with TPGK and donk lead, diamonds look scarier, maybe theres a bottom set out there, idk. Maybe the hand selection is wrong but if I'm going to play 74s I want it to be against 1 opp, not 3 with similar ranges in a limp pot.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 473 ✭✭✭
    My comments are only about preflop. I don't think the hand should be played given who limped. I wouldn't advise limping this hand either; however, I will agree that raising is better than limping, although my preference is for a fold.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,085 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think everyone has made their points on the downsides of this play.

    Now look at the upside. Exploitation is an ugly word and will look ugly to poker players concerned with more pure linear choices. Therefore, the question for Blindraise is, does he know how far he is outside the lines? If he does, where is the problem? If he doesn't, that's different.

    So I'd say: Carry on, there will be a time when you are interested in more equilibrium-oriented play, and why the expenditure of aggressive money to isolate this one limp is with this piece of equity is so inefficient.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file