Bad river bluff spot?

JayCageJayCage I'munna b where I'm at Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
2-5nl Live
Hero $850
Villain $900ish

No real reads on villian. First time playing with him. I would say he is average abc player.

2 limps to villain in co who raises to 20. Button folds.
I 3b to 80 from sb. Folds back to villain who calls

Pot is 175 (-6 rake)

Flop is :3s :4s :7h
I bet 80. Villain calls
Pot is 335

Turn is :Ad
I check. Villain checks.
Pot is 335

River is :7d
I bet 250. Villian thinks for 20, 30 seconds and calls.

I can reveal the hands later. But first does my line make any sense? Should I have just given up? I have no show down value.

See what you think. I'll elaborate further if people think its worthy of discussion.

Comments

  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 223 ✭✭✭
    If you want to bluff this, you gotta be barreling on the turn ace. FWIW, this is a pretty bad flop, so I wouldn't be bluffing this super often.

    I don't really understand what you are repping when you check turn and bet river. AK/AQ holdings should probably be betting turn, so I guess you are saying you have something like AJ/AT? I don't love this line.
  • JayCageJayCage I'munna b where I'm at Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    Thanks Phil,
    That's the problem I guess. I was not thinking about what I'm repping. When he check backs the turn I thought he hated the Ace turn card. I'm thinking he has 99, TT. JJ that he's pot controlling on the flop. He may even just call turn with QQ fearing running into Aces or Kings. There is not a lot of 3 beting in this game and I'm thinking he"s putting me on a tight 3bet range. QQ+, AK.

    As far as the flop goes I think that does not improve either of us. I am repping QQ+ AK with my 3bet and whats he raise/calling with? 99, TT, JJ, QQ, AK AQs I think he folds 33,44 pre. Maybe he calls with 77 but 7 hits the river. So what I'm saying, I guess, I though it was a good flop for me.
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 223 ✭✭✭
    edited March 4
    JayCage wrote: »
    Thanks Phil,
    That's the problem I guess. I was not thinking about what I'm repping. When he check backs the turn I thought he hated the Ace turn card. I'm thinking he has 99, TT. JJ that he's pot controlling on the flop. He may even just call turn with QQ fearing running into Aces or Kings. There is not a lot of 3 beting in this game and I'm thinking he"s putting me on a tight 3bet range. QQ+, AK.

    As far as the flop goes I think that does not improve either of us. I am repping QQ+ AK with my 3bet and whats he raise/calling with? 99, TT, JJ, QQ, AK AQs I think he folds 33,44 pre. Maybe he calls with 77 but 7 hits the river. So what I'm saying, I guess, I though it was a good flop for me.

    A couple quick pointers:
    -You should be 3betting MUCH wider than QQ+ AK here in SB to a CO open.
    -You might be factually correct that he folds 33,44 pre, but if he is playing optimally, he should have all but premium PPs here, 22-JJ probably. Now, if he knows you 3bet nitty tight like you said, maybe he folds low pocket pairs. But standard play would flat them.
    -If V is playing standard GTO, he does have tons of sevens here, as well as all 56s combos. If you were playing me in the CO here, I would have all sets, 56s combos, and 8-12 combos with a 7. This is a significantly better flop for CO than it is for SB, and it's not even close.
    -After turn checks through, I agree with you that villain can have a lot of combos that hate the ace. 88-JJ are all reasonable holdings. But that's why, if you are going to bluff, you have to barrel the ace. Your story doesn't make sense when you check the ace and barrel the river. If I'm villain here with JJ, it's hard to think about what you are repping. A strong ace? A seven? I don't think you are 3betting 87s in SB, and strong aces shouldn't be checking the turn. Frankly, it looks like missed spades. If I had TT, JJ with no spades I am very inclined to call river here in villain's shoes. And I would be snap calling with any ace.

    Also as a side note, I don't understand your comment about your 3bet range: if your 3bet range is QQ+, AK, then certainly you do have showdown value, right? In fact, none of your hands DON'T have showdown value...?
  • JayCageJayCage I'munna b where I'm at Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    Thanks! I am 3betting much wider here but I don’t think my opponent thinks that.
    Once I get to the river as played my thought process was villain did not flop a set because he would bet the turn when checked to. I think if he floated with AKs he would also bet the turn. So I am narrowing his range down to 88-JJ.

    My hand :Jh :Th
    His hand :Ah :Kh

  • cxy123cxy123 Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    fwiw - if I were you opponent I would call with any A and I am fairly nitty. AK the only thought is raising for value and possibly folding a chop. I think a lot of better players than me would find a call with worse than an A. And I definitely am calling flop with AK as well. On the river, I know what I would like to think I would do but in game I am probably folding JJ and lower so it may have worked on me.

    then again donkey that I am, I would probably bet the turn letting you fold everything so yeah you wouldnt get here against me ;)

  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 223 ✭✭✭
    edited March 5
    JayCage wrote: »
    Thanks! I am 3betting much wider here but I don’t think my opponent thinks that.
    Once I get to the river as played my thought process was villain did not flop a set because he would bet the turn when checked to. I think if he floated with AKs he would also bet the turn. So I am narrowing his range down to 88-JJ.

    My hand :Jh :Th
    His hand :Ah :Kh

    Why do you give him credit for AK and not give him any combos of AJ and AQ?

    After seeing hands, obviously he played this pretty bad. His main line should be 4betting this pre, and he should absolutely be betting turn with his hand.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,932 ✭✭✭✭
    Personally, I'm no fan of preflop 3bet JTs in this situation. It's a hand which can flop great equity and does well in MW. Despite being OOP, I'd rather call and hope to get BB and limpers with.

    I could see a 3bet IF CO has a stealing range (aka if CO is position aware and has a stealing range and will defend rather wide). Then you still would have decent equity against a significant chunk of V range, and you still can +EV bluff because V would have enough combo to fold.

    If CO isn't much position aware, we still could see JTs as 3bet bluff, using this combo for board coverage; still, I prefer to call with JTs (see above) and raise with J9s. But in this situation it would be a once-and-done bluff, and would continue fire flop only if we hit nicely (good made hand or great draw) because a none-position aware V will have a rather tight range - aka stronger than JTs - and not many combo to fold.
  • JayCageJayCage I'munna b where I'm at Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    edited March 5
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Why do you give him credit for AK and not give him any combos of AJ and AQ?

    I did say he may have continued with AQs.
    JayCage wrote: »
    As far as the flop goes I think that does not improve either of us. I am repping QQ+ AK with my 3bet and whats he raise/calling with? 99, TT, JJ, QQ, AK AQs I think he folds 33,44 pre. Maybe he calls with 77 but 7 hits the river. So what I'm saying, I guess, I though it was a good flop for me.

    I think , right or wrong a lot of "typical" ie bad players open wide from the co but defend very tight to a three bet. and a lot will not 4bet AK only AA & KK.

    So he definitely played outplayed me.
    I'm not sure that was his intention. I think he was genuinely being careful.
    He got me to put in 250 on the river because he checked back the turn with AK. I am confused by his line (not at the time) because mainly because I thought he would bet the turn with all the hands he would not fold on the river. So when he didn't bet turn, I thought I could take him off his hand. This was pretty much my only thoughts on the river.
    Is this being too blind?

    And as always maybe its just not a good preflop decision to 3bet a co raise with :Jh :Th . Call and see a flop I think could be better.
    Red wrote: »
    Personally, I'm no fan of preflop 3bet JTs in this situation. It's a hand which can flop great equity and does well in MW. Despite being OOP, I'd rather call and hope to get BB and limpers with

    If I do that I save 390... But I don't try to open up my game at all and I become the TAG/Reg. I dunno. I'm sure there are better spots. But when you play live the great spots don't seem to come around a lot.

    Side question would be would :Jh :Th from the sb be a good squeeze? say middle opens 20 and 2 callers. Make it 125 from sb? Or you just calling and hoping to flop well?

    Thanks for the discussion guys!
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    edited March 5
    I think JTs works better from the blinds as a 3bet squeeze.

    From the BU, this is a hand that we can happily flat with and likely see a flop. We can flop a ton of equity in a MW pot.

    Trying to squeeze against an unknown with players left to act behind us can lead to trouble. Typically, you try to squeeze when you know the player who opened is playing wider than he should be, and those left to act are tight/passive. Here, we have an unknown V who could be on the tighter side of the spectrum, so our attempted squeeze is well behind when he flats our 3b.

    The flop doesn't do us any favors. We know we're likely behind since V called. And now we need runner-runner to make the best hand, as a J may give us top pair, but with a meh kicker, and potentially facing QQ. So when we decide to bluff cbet this flop, we're trying to sell the idea that we have an overpair or a nut flush draw. An A on the turn should hit our nut flush range that we're repping hard. And yet we check. River is essentially a brick and we bet again. Looks like JJ-KK, or a missed spade draw to me. Any A is going to call, in my opinion.

    I'm a little surprised that he didn't bet the turn. It seems risky to let a spade draw see a free card.

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,932 ✭✭✭✭
    JayCage wrote: »
    I'm not sure that was his intention. I think he was genuinely being careful.
    He got me to put in 250 on the river because he checked back the turn with AK. I am confused by his line (not at the time) because mainly because I thought he would bet the turn with all the hands he would not fold on the river. So when he didn't bet turn, I thought I could take him off his hand. This was pretty much my only thoughts on the river.
    Is this being too blind?

    It's not that strange to check back TP on turn for Villain: only :SPADE: (if you've FD) or J, Q, and blocked K (if Heros has JJ-KK) are dangerous cards for AK.
    If he thinks you play (rather) straightforwardly, then betting TP here will find way too many folds and little value.
    So holding a hand which is not really vulnerable and against someone who apparently doesn't have anything (much), then it's fine to check and value river.

    He should not have AK, and he should not turn check his best AX, but still the main problem is not Villain being too passive, problem is your terrible line on every streets.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,932 ✭✭✭✭
    JayCage wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    Personally, I'm no fan of preflop 3bet JTs in this situation. It's a hand which can flop great equity and does well in MW. Despite being OOP, I'd rather call and hope to get BB and limpers with

    If I do that I save 390... But I don't try to open up my game at all and I become the TAG/Reg. I dunno. I'm sure there are better spots. But when you play live the great spots don't seem to come around a lot.

    You don't "save 390$". Don't be result oriented. If I want to call with JTs, it's because I've a strategy to play this combo postflop - mostly around how well you flop with such combo.

    there are a lot of great spots. Look around, observe Villains, study poker. And stab.
    JayCage wrote: »
    Side question would be would :Jh :Th from the sb be a good squeeze? say middle opens 20 and 2 callers. Make it 125 from sb? Or you just calling and hoping to flop well?

    There is no "good squeeze" in absolute. Sometimes it's better to raise a hand; sometimes it's better to call; sometimes it's better to fold.
    We are not playing in a vacuum, we are playing in a specific place (position and relative position, eff. stack / expected SPR, table dynamic) against specific Villain (tendencies, mistake propensity).

    Build a strategy out of table, then adapt it on the table to always play with a plan which fits your needs and goals.
  • JayCageJayCage I'munna b where I'm at Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    He should not have AK, and he should not turn check his best AX, but still the main problem is not Villain being too passive, problem is your terrible line on every streets.

    Roasted! Lol, but well deserved!
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 223 ✭✭✭
    edited March 5
    JayCage wrote: »
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Why do you give him credit for AK and not give him any combos of AJ and AQ?

    I did say he may have continued with AQs.

    I guess what I'm saying is, I would not give him a range here of 88-JJ. I would give him 88-JJ, AJs, and at least 5 combos of AQ, and also several suited Ax. AJ and AQ are pretty decent hands for him to check this turn back to keep you from overbluffing, as they aren't going to be good for 3 streets of value. AK and two pair Ax should probably be bet on turn by him. So, if I were you, I wouldn't just give him 88-JJ after he checks turn. He can have a decent amount of aces.

    Regarding 3betting JTs out of the SB, this is completely standard, and don't listen to nitty players who tell you to flat here. Flatting with JTs to a standard 20-25% CO open is far less EV than 3betting. Good call 3betting pre, and I love your 4x OOP sizing.

    FWIW, I don't think you played this terrible on every street, as Red says. 3bet pre is completely standard, flop cbet is also OK (although I think your sizing is too large if you are cbetting your entire range). IMHO, the mistakes are this: 1) if you are going to turn this hand into a bluff, you've gotta bluff when the ace comes, and 2) This flop isn't great for your range, and imo, the 2/5 field generally calls too often with Ax in these spots, so I would just be X-giving up always on the turn, unless I think the guy is a super nit. I think there are very few players at 2/5 where bluffing on this board is +EV in the long run.

    Also, this is more of my personal approach to poker, but I don't love the idea of saying "I'm 3betting wider than X, but I think my opponent thinks I'm 3betting with Y." This just gets into a leveling war, and you make decisions based on what you think your opponent thinks you have, rather than what you know you can have in different spots. But if you are wrong about what your opponent thinks you can have, you will be making very bad decisions. If you were playing against me in CO here, I would never think that your range is as tight as QQ+ AK. So if you were playing against me here and you were assuming I think that your range is top 2.5%, you would make some pretty bad assumptions about how I would react to your bets.
    I would rather play my range the way that I best know how to play it, and just assume the villain knows what my possible hands are here. That way I can't be taken advantage of.

    Hope that helps.



  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,587 ✭✭✭✭✭
    JayCage wrote: »
    I was not thinking about what I'm repping.

    Bluffing without thinking about what you're repping is like playing blackjack without looking at your cards, only the dealer's card.

  • JayCageJayCage I'munna b where I'm at Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    Thanks Phil, That does help a lot.
    Thanks everyone for taking the time to comment!

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