Good Bluff Spot?

Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 423 ✭✭✭
Playing $1/$3 live at MGM National Harbor this afternoon, Hero ($775) is dealt :AD: :5S: on the button. Three players limp in UTG, MP and CO and Hero raises to $25. Hero is trying to steal the blinds/limps as the blinds behind me are not defending that often and this table has been limp/folding a ton.

(Is this too wide on the button? I'm only trying to steal and since I am going to be in position with almost no risk of a 3 bet from the blinds, I thought even if called I get to play an uncapped range IP.)

My plans instantly go awry as the SB ($450) a known reg, calls. OMC in the CO ($300) calls as well.

Flop ($84): :8d: :7d: :2H:

SB donks out for $25, CO folds and Hero elects to call. I don't believe V is donking a set here. V could certainly donk a flush draw but Hero holds the :Ad: and blocks some of his best FDs. He could also donk an OESD, 9T being far more likely that he called preflop than 56.

Hero elects to call with the backdoor straight and flush draws and one over. My range still contains flush draws, OESDs, a few combos of two pair and all the overs. I would not raise 99+ in this spot, assuming I only get looked up by better hands. Sets drop off though because I would certainly raise these. V's small bet sizing on the flop seemed to me to be a bet to see where he was at; I don't believe he would donk top pair on the board here. He could, I suppose, donk 99, TT, JJ, but he would have 3-bet QQ+, and maybe even Jacks and Tens. I'm not sure on his worst PP to flat with. He got to showdown in a 3bet pot with QQ once but I'd be hesitant to say that's the bottom of his 3 betting range.

Turn ($134): :8C:

Villain checks. If V donked top pair, I do not believe for a second he is now going to slow down and check the turn with trip 8s. That seems extremely unlikely to me. I think his range is tilting toward flush draws, OESDs, and maybe 99, TT, JJ. Hero elects to bet, with the intention of trying to buy this pot. I know he can't be drawing to the nut flush and even his bottom OESD is blocked slightly by my :5s: Hero bets $55 which I hate the sizing looking back on. I had forgotten CO called pre and thought the pot was $109, which, perhaps makes $55 still a bad sizing as it gives a draw a better price. However, $55 was the bet. V tank calls.

River ($244): :9d:

V checks. With absolutely no showdown value, I decide I am going to fire the river, an airball bluff, knowing that: a) I block the nut flush and b) V is not checking a straight, flush or boat on the river. So based on what I perceive his range to be, he likely flatted my raise with something like TT or JJ, as 99 made the boat, or he's got some combo of a missed draw.

Hero bets $125. Again, I think my sizing isn't great, but I wanted the bluff to be as cheap as possible given that I think the only made hands V can have here are TT or JJ. Maybe I am being overly confident in my hand reading here (and if so, I'll blame Sweeney, his workbook is giving me a ton of confidence haha), but Hero can rep a ton of really strong hands. Straight flushes, boats, flushes, straights, 3 of a kind are all in hero's range. Given that we don't think V has any of these hands on the river, is this a good spot to bluff?

If not, where in my thinking have I gone wrong? Love the feedback, as always.

Comments

  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    edited March 6
    I don't believe V is donking a set here.

    Why's that?

    There's a lot to digest in this hand, but a good chunk of it may hinge on whether or not he can have a stone cold monster here.

    I was in a similarish hand just last night where I flopped top pair + flush draw and the guy with a set donked $20 into $100 vs 3 others.

    Obviously it's not likely, but I wouldn't discount it altogether. This is a flop a lot of pre flop raisers will check back.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 423 ✭✭✭
    I think V would have gone for a x/r with a set. To be fair, I have never seen V donk, so I'm applying general player pool tendencies to V, which certainly could be flawed. I don't think I have ever been donked into with a set.

    I love that you quoted that aspect though because I just basically dismissed sets without really thinking through it. I still stand by that I think sets are unlikely but at least I know I am on thin ice in terms of rationale.
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    edited March 6
    I agree it's unlikely. I mean, they're hard to get, and is this that rare time he's going to donk a third pot size bet with them? I think you'd be correct to weigh sets way down in his range, but I wouldn't discount them out of hand.

    In my experience, people donk for one of two reasons. With a weak hand "to find out where they're at" or get a cheap turn, or to induce a raise so they can get it in with a strong made hand or draw. Since you have the :AD: his strong draws are much more likely to be straight+flush draws or two overs + FD.

    But to be realistic, most of the time at $1/$3, I've found weak is just plain old weak. I'd except a lot of 7x and 8x here, and since he checks the turn, an 8 is now very unlikely.

    Here's my concern with your bluff, looking past what he can have here, what can you represent? Is he going to believe that you didn't attempt to move him off his weak lead on the flop with a flush draw? Is he going to give you credit for a strong overpair? An 8?

    From his perspective, your hand looks like unpaired overs, and if he has what it looks like he has, he's on the river with either a flush or a bluff catcher.

    Blocking the nut flush when someone checks to you OOP on the river isn't worth much, since no one's ever folding a flush to a single bet. If he'd led $75 instead of checking, the value of your nut blocker goes up exponentially.

    So yeah, whether to bluff the river here I think comes down to how often you think he's willing to let go of a one pair hand on a paired board, and how often he's going to check call a flush instead of leading with it. Also, I still think he can have a boat here a small % of the time, which I think most likely will be check raising the river.

  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 423 ✭✭✭
    I have all the straights, flushes, even boats and a straight flush in my range. What can I rep? I'm not saying I don't have a ton of unpaired overs (or, um, A5 haha) but I think I can rep a ton of big hands.

    And I don't believe V is checking a straight, flush or, boat on the river. Why do you think he would do this?
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    Most of the boats are 87, 77, 22. How likely are you to not raise the flop with those.? How likely are you to have hit the river with 99?

    The most believable boat is 89, as it's congruent with your line, but still, just one of the many other combos also congruent with your line.

    Flush draws are either straight or two over combos. How likely are you to not raise the flop with those?

    The straights are just 56 and JT. Possible, of course, but again, it's hard for him to give you credit for 56 being the pre flop raiser, and JT is again just one of all the two over combos you could have here.

    When the flush comes, if I've rivered a straight, I'm check calling. As played, if I've rivered a small-medium flush, I'm check calling. If I've rivered a big flush, I'm probably leading and it all comes down to my perception of you as to whether I'm check raising a boat or leading.

    Whatever I have, when I check the turn to you, and you bet $50, it looks to me like you floated me on the flop and are now taking a stab in position. It doesn't look like you're trying to get build a pot so we can get it all in the middle.

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