Bluff spot on the river

MrNiceMrNice Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=4s2vaWu

PREFLOP

Opening J8s was a good choice. After both blinds call, I discount any of the strongest hands (AJs+,TT+, AQo+). They likely have broadways, pocket pairs or an Ax hand.

FLOP

Good board for me. C bet of 66% was a bad decision. I dont need to bet big to fold out his 77.

Calling range of SB: Kx, Tx, QJ, 78s

TURN

Turn is a brick. I bet again to apply pressure to any pair weaker than Kx. The strongest hands he can have are KTs and 66.

RIVER

I probably should have bluffed the river. A bet around 80% pot would have been good. I value bet AA, AK, KK, KQ, KJ, TT,66, KT on the river so I need some bluffs.

Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,900 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Seems like a misapplication of upswing principles to bet this turn, as you have so many other hands with equity that can fire again. Now, you must bluff and are overbluffing at once.
  • MrNiceMrNice Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Seems like a misapplication of upswing principles to bet this turn, as you have so many other hands with equity that can fire again. Now, you must bluff and are overbluffing at once.

    I went through the lab and I didnt thought it was very helpful since I found myself playing more passive. My plan was to give up on any turn that didnt gave me more equity.

    How would you have played the hand?
  • bmat66bmat66 Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    I think the strongest bluffing line would have been half pot on the flop, and $1 (slightly over pot on the turn) which if he calls sets you up for a nice pot size all-in on the river.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,900 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 11
    @MrNice I think you're going to find a lot more value in thinking through how this board and formation works, focusing on the SB's flat call preflop and what that means, than in getting a line from me. There are many interesting factors in play.

  • MrNiceMrNice Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    @MrNice I think you're going to find a lot more value in thinking through how this board and formation works, focusing on the SB's flat call preflop and what that means, than in getting a line from me. There are many interesting factors in play.
    I dont have an equity calculator at the moment so I dont know the exact numbers.


    I expected him to call with suited aces, any pair, broadways and suited connectors and gappers. That means he folds a lot on the flop since he very often flops bad or at best mediocre. When he called my bet on the flop I discount any pair weaker than a ten. He calls with K7s+, T6s+ and some floats like 78s.

    I expected him to raise my c bet on the flop with his best hands like KT, 66 and TT. That gives him a range of most mediocre pairs and QJ as a draw. By betting 75% , I thought I make him fold out any T and his floats. On the river, I probably should have bluffed against a tight player and bet big. Versus him, giving up on the turn is fine since he calls with a lot of bad hands and I dont know if he folds to me on the river. If I pot the river, he needs to fold 66% to break even. I dont expect him to fold a king ever, and since I am blocking a hand that would fold on the river like QJ the best option was to give up.
  • MrNiceMrNice Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    @MrNice I think you're going to find a lot more value in thinking through how this board and formation works, focusing on the SB's flat call preflop and what that means, than in getting a line from me. There are many interesting factors in play.

    And youre right, Im currently constructing a range how I would continue on that flop with my BU range, but I'm partly insecure how to approach this spot.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,900 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well, to start with, I don't think he has a lot of gappers. The reason is, he is going to be a bad spot on the flop, and the BB still hasn't acted. So most SB calls are going to be a very condensed part of the deck. Further, he's not going to flat most Kx, because the better ones are 3bets, and the worse ones can't call with the BB behind. So his concentration is going to pairs and broad ways he's not willing to 3 bet, in general.
  • MrNiceMrNice Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Well, to start with, I don't think he has a lot of gappers. The reason is, he is going to be a bad spot on the flop, and the BB still hasn't acted. So most SB calls are going to be a very condensed part of the deck. Further, he's not going to flat most Kx, because the better ones are 3bets, and the worse ones can't call with the BB behind. So his concentration is going to pairs and broad ways he's not willing to 3 bet, in general.

    I agree, its a retrospective analysis (he had Th7h). On this site players call the sb wider.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,900 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Haha, ok, so if that is the case your three barrels will just go up in general as they won't land on the river with enough good hands.

    I'd also look into thinking about why you'd want to check back turn with some kings and how that affects what you get to do on the river.

    GL

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