AQo in a Squeeze Played Pot

gl523gl523 Red Chipper Posts: 93 ✭✭
$.02/.04 Online 5 Players
Effective Stack Size: $4.24

Hero is in HJ with :AH: :QC: .
Hero raises to $.12. CO calls. BB raises to $.6. Hero calls.

Pot: $1.34
Flop: :JD: :JH: :TC:
BB bets $.4. Hero calls.

Pot: $2.14
Turn: :6S:
BB bets $1.07. Hero folds.

So I am not sure if Villain would squeeze with bluffs; I am guessing that since this is microstakes (and the fact that there were only three 3 bets in my one hour session which I didn't notice until after the session was over), Villain is probably only 3 betting with value bets which means that I probably should have folded. I called since I thought haphazardly that Villain has bluffs. With the flop, if I assume Villain will continue with value and draws and 3 bets with JJ+KQ AQ+, I have 40% equity to call. If Villain only continues with value, I only have 18% equity. I floated since I acted as if this were a single raised pot thinking that with a paired board with broadway cards, Villain would c-bet with all of Villain's range and that I could steal the pot if an overcard comes. I probably should have folded at the flop now that I look back.
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Comments

  • AHallai_3AHallai_3 Sault Ste Marie, MIRed Chipper Posts: 32 ✭✭
    Seems like a spot to fold AQo preflop. However, I feel you may have missed a decent semi-bluff opportunity after your call. I’d dive deep into how bad a flop raise looks, and also how a turn shove looks? Maybe you can get this person to fold QQ-AA. It’s a rainbow board, and most players tend to look up bluffs when a flush draw is present, and give extra credit without.
  • gl523gl523 Red Chipper Posts: 93 ✭✭
    So I considered a flop raise and a turn shove with my value heavy range that I assigned Villain above and both of them work if Villain only continues with Two Pairs and OESDs which makes up 53.33 percent of Villain’s range (the turn shove works since I bet OESDs). The flop raise only needs 40 percent for success and the turn shove only needs 50 percent. Good idea with the semi bluffing! :) I didn’t realize that even with a value heavy 3 bet range, two pair combos only exist 26 percent of the time. I thought that it was significantly more. If I remove AQ, two pair only exists 36 percent of the time and if remove AQ, two pair only exists 50 percent of the time. That’s ignoring the fact that I have a gut shot! :)

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