Floating with backdoors

CashmoneyAKCashmoneyAK Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
Hey all, this was an online hand from the other night. I had just started and wasn't sure if I was being too sticky here. I've done some analysis I'll put here, but would love your thoughts.

0.02/0.04 Global 6max NL
Folds around to SB (6.34 stack) who completes.
Hero (3.94 stack) is in BB with :Jc :Kc and raises to 0.12.
SB calls.

Flop (0.24 in pot)
:5d :6c :Qh

Villain checks
Hero bets 0.16
Villain x/r to 0.40
Hero calls

Turn (1.04)
:4c

Villain bets 0.72
Hero calls

River (2.48)
:5s

Villain checks
Hero bets 1.6



To start off, for Villain's complete range I use the SB complete range from The Course to start me somewhere. Any suited cards, 88-22, KQo-54o, AJo-A2o, KJo-K9o, QTo-Q9o, J9o. After he calls my raise (which I think could've been bigger), I don't think he drops too many hands from this range. I went with the following range,

hi4nyc2yi58s.png

With the x/r on the flop, I'm not entirely sure what to include in this range. With Top pair+ and OESD, that would leave me with about 23% equity.

ly6k2bpl67se.png

If we also include middle pairs and PP below top pair, our equity inches up to 25%.

y5qe1kprjmz6.png

Just using breakeven percentage, I would need to call 0.24 in a pot that is already 0.80. This means I need (0.24/(0.24+0.8)) roughly 23% to make the call. This seems to be an OK call, but would love to hear feedback on it because it felt very fishy when I did it, although I do have backdoor straight and flush possibilities.

On the turn, we hit a club and now have a flush draw. However, it completes some OESD draw combos for Villain. Here is another spot where I'm not sure; Would Villain check any of his combos here? For analysis, I use 100% of his x/r range for his bet on the turn. That would leave me with about 26% equity against his range and needing about 0.72/(0.72+1.04) = 40% when just looking at pot odds. In terms of implied odds, I will hit my flush about 18% of the time and there would be 2.70 effective behind that I could possibly get from Villain.
I think the overall expectation equation goes something like this:
(0.74*(-0.72) + (1.76*0.06) + (7.16*0.18) = positive 0.86, or +19BB.

The above calculation has a few assumptions like part 1 describes me calling and folding/losing to anything on the river without putting more chips in. Part 2 shows me hitting a K and winning with no more chips going in. Part 3 shows me hitting the flush and the stacks going in. It isn't perfect by any means, but I think it justifies a call here. Would love to hear thoughts on this.

For the river, we get a blank. However, Villain checks. Although this could be to induce, it looks weak to me. I then choose to bet fairly big (2/3 pot) to try to take down this sizable pot. 2/3 pot with a bluff needs to work 40% of the time to breakeven. At this point, I have 86 total combos for Villain.

hj39al39dcrn.png

3 combos of bottom pair
54 combos of top pair
2 combos of (better) two pair
16 combos of straight
10 combos of full house
1 combo of quads

If we assume Villain would fold ALL top pairs and his bottom pair, they would fold 57/86 or 68.6% of the time. If we assume that Villain would only fold half of his top pairs, they would fold 30/86 or 34.9% of the time. To get more than half, we'd have to decide if Villain would fold Q9 or QT in this spot. What do you guys think?

Any feedback is greatly appreciated.

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,637 -
    My guess is the x/r range you assign contains too much middling stuff. I'd expect to see the straight draws and 2pr+
    Moderation In Moderation
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,169 ✭✭✭✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    My guess is the x/r range you assign contains too much middling stuff.
    This is important: have have him x/r'ing very merged for some reason with many hands that are natural calls.

    Next, the range you have given him is extremely unprotected and wide and will not allow for many limp raises. You are saying he is a fish - possibly true, possibly not.

    In any case, you have decided to bet polar on the flop, increasing the size of the call that you will have to make. The question then becomes, how often are you combining these two actions, as if it trends high, you'll be losing money with so little direct equity and at such a high price. The glory of having a b/f range that is polar is that the bets are supposed to be more clear, as are the folds, but here you go into murky territory, even though it is certainly a superior play than always folding KJs here and your willingness to fight for the pot is good.
  • CashmoneyAKCashmoneyAK Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
    @TheGameKat @persuadeo Thank you both so much for your time and input!
  • EurocratEurocrat Red Chipper Posts: 36 ✭✭
    Interesting hand. While I understand that there are profitable completing strategies, I don't think anybody on NL4 is applying that. I think it's safe to assume that we are playing with a fish. That being said, the range seems about right to me.
    On flop, without additional information I would assume this player type to be passive and would probably just b/f here, assuming that he'll be highly imbalanced towards nuttish hands.
    That being said, did you consider raising the turn? I haven't done a full blown analysis, but I feel like when we float like this we should seize most opportunities for agression. Relating to that, I figure if Villain tripple-barrels, we would just fold on the river?

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