Tricky turn with trips. Now what?

MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 100 ✭✭
edited January 18 in Live Poker Hands
Played this hand at Harrahs New Orleans $1/$3 NLHE.

I start the hand with around $300. Main villain in hand has me covered. Not a lot of reads yet on the players.

In middle position with 45c. UTG makes it 15. Two callers. I call. Two more callers. Pot = $75.

The flop: 448 two diamonds. UTG bets 25. One call. I raise to 75. Two callers (Loose guy to my left and old Asian man to my right calls). Pot = $325.

Turn: Kd. So three diamonds on the board now. 😨Old Asian guy bets 200. He has me covered. I worry about paying him off if he hit his flush, but he has appeared very loose, so seems entirely possible he’s bluffing scare card. But I can't get a read on him at all. Guy to my left is still to act.

$200 will put me all in. Maybe he's bluffing... and if not, I still have ten outs? In hindsight (if my math is right), my breakeven percentage is about 27%... Does that justify a fold or a call?

What's your play here?

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,831 -
    I don't think it can be right to play that hand, hit a miracle flop with a low SPR, and then fold at any point.

    Fold pre.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,396 ✭✭✭✭
    Against a turned flush, you've 22.7% equity.
    Your pot odds are 200/725 (considering the last one fold) or 27.6%
    It's a fold

    V can be very loose, but will he bet wide ? There is a different between loose-passive (esp. chasers) and loose-aggressive. The first ones call wide, but don't lead wide. One the later will be overly aggro ; you would have noticed it very quickly, since you didn't put it out ("no read"), then you should not expect V to lead light nor bluff heavy. I expect V to have very often what he reps here.

    Yet you should not be in such spot in the first place.

    1. Your flop raise isn't great. Esp. your raising size is too small. The opener only has to call 50 to win 250 (and 50 for 300 for the last caller) - it's not enough pressure to make many overpairs fold.
    The problem is that the eff. stacks (275) is very large to the bet (25) and pot (75+25), so shoving is such an overbet that it's not really an option here. And smth in-between lead to a small / tiny stack to pot ratio on turn (which is then impossible to have enough / any FE when bluff).
    For that, maybe I prefer either to call the flop and put pressure on turn (shove) or to check-shove if a LP raises himself.

    2. More importantly, I'd strongly question playing 54s. Just fold your suited meh hands.
    You face strong ranges, one of these being uncap (UTG). 54s is never going to be good enough of the time, esp. MW where you equity is even more diluted - only a magic flop can make you win the hand.
    Even worst: being MW, you will face regularly a better FD/flush, giving you consequent reversed implied odds.
    Even worst (bis) you lay the ground for a big preflop squeeze; against which you will have to fold.
    I think you just have to let that hand go.
    (There might be some situations where you could 3bet, but clearly not here.)
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 168 ✭✭
    I agree with everything said above. These small SC are enticing but this position and this stack depth make it difficult to win very often.

    @Red pointed out your raise size, needs to be waaay bigger or a flat hoping for a x/r.

    As played, can’t really ever fold but we’ve priced in all the draws. Fold pre.
  • Chris_VChris_V BoiseRed Chipper Posts: 74 ✭✭
    edited January 19
    Please excuse my interruption: Just interested in what people, who would fold this hand pre-flop, would consider their cusp hands to flat here. 76s? ATs? 22? AKo?

    Also, on the end when we think villain is betting a flush I think we may need to calculate in 5%-10% chance of a bluff which may push us to make a call here.
  • Benjammin Benjammin Red Chipper Posts: 30 ✭✭
    I play 1/3 at Harrahs occasionally and stick to big cards pre and always try to be the aggressor. these players come to gamble and they will call largish bets with a hand like yours, or even much worse. It puts them in bad situations on the flop a huge percentage of the time which is where we gain our advantage. They set us up with easily profitable c-bets and barrels. It’s tempting to gamble with them and try to make a hand, but it’s not likely to be profitable in the long run. Fold pre. As played: fold, reload and adjust pre-flop to account for all the weak hands they play. He’s almost always got it.
  • MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 100 ✭✭
    So aside from preflop, on the flop, and the turn (yes, I called), I played it pretty well... ;-)

    Thanks for the responses — it was definitely one of those hands that bothered me after the night and I agree that I pretty much erred each step of the hand. At the same time, I'm trying to challenge myself as I try to improve a typically TAG style not to be too nitty or fold too much, so it's helpful to get feedback on situations like this.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,831 -
    MattP wrote: »
    So aside from preflop, on the flop, and the turn (yes, I called), I played it pretty well... ;-)

    Thanks for the responses — it was definitely one of those hands that bothered me after the night and I agree that I pretty much erred each step of the hand. At the same time, I'm trying to challenge myself as I try to improve a typically TAG style not to be too nitty or fold too much, so it's helpful to get feedback on situations like this.

    And this is why you'll improve. Most players only get "bothered" because something unfathomable happened like they got out-flopped.
    Moderation In Moderation

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