Got stacked against a J7o, can't work out why this hand floated

sundriedsundried Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
edited February 29 in Live Poker Hands
Stakes 2/3, 9 handed live.

I'm holding :Qs:Kd UTG. Having been card dead for a few orbits now is a nice time to open $15. CO, BU, SB and BB call. Effective stack is $350 (my stack), BU and BB have me covered.

BU appeared to be a heavy floater, BB had also been card dead and appeared bored but he is a reg who I have seen around so would not play any two cards (or so I thought).

Flop ($75): :Qc:Jh:2D:

Checks to me. My thought process: I bet $40 as the board is relatively dry. There is no way anyone is holding AQ as they would have 3bet this but I lose to QJ now. Anyone with T9s or a set will likely call me down. BU and BB call.

Turn ($205): :7S:

BB checks to me. I bet $100. BU asks how much I have left (~$210 post bet), tanks and then folds. As soon as he folds BB snap jams and has me covered. I don't think a QJ, Jacks or 2s is doing this besides calling down and perhaps raising the river. There is no way he has 7s as that folds the flop or Queens as that would also have 3bet. I figure the only hand here is 89s. So I call. He flips over :Jc:7h . I am stacked. I cannot work out how this could have happened. The only thing I think I could have done is bet bigger on the flop. I elected to bet smaller as I thought the only hands that would call a bet of say $60 is a hand that beats me or 89s (which would probably then raise) so I may as well bet smaller for pot control. As he only had to pay $40 to win $165 on the flop I suppose the most advanced play would be to float and go for 2 pair equity. But even then he literally has 3 effective outs (any 7) because once BU calls he's basically losing to a queen or better jack. I could see J7o being played as defence and calling the flop heads up but 5 ways I simply could not see that happening.

Answers

  • WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    edited February 29
    I don't get it. I would need more accurate information/assumptions of who the opposition is in this hand (BB especially).

    PF is standard and my experience with similar live stakes is as this hand suggests also somewhat frequent multiway pots.

    Do you mean 2/4 or 2/3? Seems weird.

    I like the flop bet, could be bigger but seems decent to me. I agree that there are not many strong combos in their ranges on this flop when called. Probably up against 22, QJ, KT, T9, K9s maybe (TT/99 depends on how sticky opposition is but most likely they'll be gone as well). Since you raised UTG and have been quite for a while I wouldn't be too surprised if one of the callers shows AQ here, but I'm not to worried myself at this point. I'd target action from second best hands like Jx, KT, K9s, T9s, QT, Q9s maybe. All good.

    On turn, when facing the shove - why do you exclude QJ, 22 from villains range? I would say those are very much live, yet there just ain't too many combos of those hands. Still, I would expect the combos of these hands to jam turn given he will be out of position on the river, and would both hate a check-check and certainly dislike some river cards. I would, like you, not believe the 7 to have helped my opponent too much of the time (although it could given his good price preflop).

    I don't understand how 98s all of a sudden becomes the one hand you believe makes up his whole range (if it's truly the case you believe he could only have 98s, pretty easy call but that range assumption seems weak).

    It's not the easiest of spots at the turn, and I won't claim to be sure myself. The deciding factor for me would be "what does opponent think I have? And does he believe he could blow me off a big chunk of the time here?". I believe your opponent (given a basic description as a reg), would give your action thus far pretty much respect. AQ, KQ, AA, KK, QQ, JJ are all likely to be a majority of your range raising UTG and firing two bullets into multiple opponents. Because of this I would believe my opponent to jam here with more of his value holdings than his semi-bluffs. Of course... Sucks to see J7o, but yeah. Hence, I think you're in bad shape.

    My flopzilla analyze gives you a 25% chance of winning the hand and makes this a slight -EV decision.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    edited February 29
    Couple of points.

    I would be surprised to see J7o here, but when calling the shove I wouldn't be surprised to lose.

    I don't understand your rationale for putting V on 98s, nor the idea that they would raise the flop. In a multiway pot 98s never sees the turn; it's the ignorant end of a gutter.

    I can however see QJ, JJ or 22 taking this line.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    @Wassenaar 2/3 is a standard blind structure in the US.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • sundriedsundried Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
    Sorry, my brain was still fuzzy when I wrote this post. Not 98s. I meant T9s. I fully forgot to include KT in my analysis as well. I suppose seeing J7o destroyed my soul. This is in Sydney, Australia where the lowest NLHE stake is 2/3 for some reason. After analysis I can see how this is definitely negative EV especially since it was a full rainbow board.


    Wassenaar wrote: »

    My flopzilla analyze gives you a 25% chance of winning the hand and makes this a slight -EV decision.

    May I ask what range you used for the BB? I tried to construct a range including J7o for this scenario and simply could not see a situation where it would ever be included as the range would have to be extended to something like 40-45%.
  • sundriedsundried Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    I can however see QJ, JJ or 22 taking this line.

    I probably should have folded. Seeing the snap jam from a bored looking guy pushed me towards the call.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    sundried wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    I can however see QJ, JJ or 22 taking this line.

    I probably should have folded. Seeing the snap jam from a bored looking guy pushed me towards the call.

    You're getting an attractive price, but my instinct is that this falls under Miller's "Don't Pay Them Off" rule.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 642 ✭✭✭
    Something that also needs addressing is
    a) having your soul crushed after losing a pot
    b) thinking you should have taken another action (bet larger on flop) in order to avoid the loss
  • WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    edited February 29
    sundried wrote: »
    After analysis I can see how this is definitely negative EV especially since it was a full rainbow board.

    Don't kick yourself too hard :P Definitely negative EV is being brutal.

    4hu46v93byuw.png

    To start of, I made a linear range, only excluding what I know for sure is going to 3-bet the majority of the time QQ+, AK. I don't think I would have assign this wide of a range for villain if I didn't know his holding, that's probably a weakness in my analyze but I'm simply not to good at BB defense ranges multiway so I stuck with it.

    2bzh0ysy9s1e.png

    I believe this to be a more or less useful assumption of what villain would check/shove turn with. And with this exact range you're doing a -$4 EV. So really... it's close and I would say it boils down to how often you think opponent will do this with OESDs. Here I said he shoves 20% of the time - could be more, although I would actually expect less.




  • WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    sundried wrote: »
    I probably should have folded. Seeing the snap jam from a bored looking guy pushed me towards the call.

    It might appear as a snap shove, yet it sounds like he had pretty good time to think while BTN were considering if he wanted to go broke or not. Probably snap shove myself as I can't stand unnecessary time wasting... Live is slow enough as is.
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 241 ✭✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    I would be surprised to see J7o here, but when calling the shove I wouldn't be surprised to lose.

    4 opponents PF and one pair loses his stack. 'nuf said.
  • driller1driller1 Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    Many people are going to call your flop bet with 2nd pair. You were unlucky that he hit his 2 pr. He shoved because there are a lot of cards that could beat him.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    sundried wrote: »
    The only thing I think I could have done is bet bigger on the flop.

    Are you trying to get him to play correctly?

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2
    This just came up in another hand thread. With weaker players you can't play on Level 5 trying to GTO their ranges. Their bets will tell the story more often than not.
    sundried wrote: »
    I'm holding :Qs:Kd UTG. Having been card dead for a few orbits now is a nice time to open $15.

    Don't want to go off on a tangent but this concept has been coming up a lot lately too - large raise sizes in low stakes games. You're raising to 5x (a lot of times you'll see 7x) with a hand that is in bad position and is easily dominated and either 3-bet making you fold or calling you leaving you no idea where you stand. I would try raising maybe to 9 or 10 against a weak table, and if that gets a hundred calls, or reraises, then just fold preflop. This may be a lucrative table, but this hand in this situation isn't the reason.
    sundried wrote: »
    I bet $40 as the board is relatively dry.

    So bet $25 then. Or mix in some checks.
    sundried wrote: »
    There is no way anyone is holding AQ as they would have 3bet

    That is simply false.
    sundried wrote: »
    Turn ($205): :7S: BB snap jams and has me covered. I don't think a QJ, Jacks or 2s is doing this besides calling down and perhaps raising the river. There is no way he has 7s as that folds the flop or Queens as that would also have 3bet. I figure the only hand here is 89s. So I call.

    Assuming you meant T9, I still think you're wrong. Sets can be played any which way, as can any other hand that beats you, including AQ, QJ, QQ, JJ, 77, 22, Q7, J7. He has one of those hands, unless he's very LAGgy, in which case you can add T9, KT or possibly even AK or some weird gutshot. I'd be a little surprised to see KQ but that is also possible.

    But again, the bottom line is yes, they're going to call with crazy things. Don't play into their hands by putting more money in than you need to and don't pay off weak players who rarely bluff, when they get aggressive. Whatever the hell it is, they hit it.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    sundried wrote: »
    May I ask what range you used for the BB?

    His range is 2 pair or 3 of a kind. Your range in his eyes is something that loses to his range, preferably aces. You don't need to overthink it when they tell you what they have.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2
    This just came up in another hand thread. With weaker players you can't play on Level 5 trying to GTO their ranges. Their bets will tell the story more often than not.
    sundried wrote: »
    I'm holding :Qs:Kd UTG. Having been card dead for a few orbits now is a nice time to open $15.

    Don't want to go off on a tangent but this concept has been coming up a lot lately too - large raise sizes in low stakes games. You're raising to 5x (a lot of times you'll see 7x) with a hand that is in bad position and is easily dominated and either 3-bet making you fold or calling you leaving you no idea where you stand. I would try raising maybe to 9 or 10 against a weak table, and if that gets a hundred calls, or reraises, then just fold preflop. This may be a lucrative table, but this hand in this situation isn't the reason.
    sundried wrote: »
    I bet $40 as the board is relatively dry.

    So bet $25 then. Or mix in some checks.
    sundried wrote: »
    There is no way anyone is holding AQ as they would have 3bet

    That is simply false.
    sundried wrote: »
    Turn ($205): :7S: BB snap jams and has me covered. I don't think a QJ, Jacks or 2s is doing this besides calling down and perhaps raising the river. There is no way he has 7s as that folds the flop or Queens as that would also have 3bet. I figure the only hand here is 89s. So I call.

    Assuming you meant T9, I still think you're wrong. Sets can be played any which way, as can any other hand that beats you, including AQ, QJ, QQ, JJ, 77, 22, Q7, J7 and yes even AA and KK. He has one of those hands, unless he's very LAGgy, in which case you can add T9, KT or possibly even AK or some weird gutshot. I'd be a little surprised to see KQ but that is also possible.

    But again, the bottom line is yes, they're going to call with crazy things. Don't play into their hands by putting more money in than you need to and don't pay off weak players who rarely bluff, when they get aggressive. Whatever the hell it is, they hit it.
  • WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    So bet $25 then. Or mix in some checks.

    I mostly understood and agreed with your review, but why would you want to either bet smaller or mix in some checks here? Assuming you're not looking to check/raise top pair? If this hand gets checked around what's the plan for... actually any turn? We're not giving up on the flop are we?

    Hero's bet in this hand got called by second best drawing thin, why change that?
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2
    Wassenaar wrote: »
    Hero's bet in this hand got called by second best drawing thin, why change that?

    Well I don't think anyone is denying that once you know what your opponent holds, and how big of a bet he'll call, that you should bet big. According to what you know your opponent has, then you should have bet the same or more preflop, the same or more on the flop, the same or more on the turn, and then simply folded the river. But we don't know what he has.

    You mix in some checks when you hit your hand and some c-bets when you miss your hand just to be hard to read. But maybe the more important concept is to not overvalue your hand and put in the amount of money it's worth while protecting it against a standard range. Let's just say for sake of argument you bet pot on the flop and turn. Well now you're stacking off with top pair, not-top-kicker, and that's a spewy way to play poker. We can add more subtlety to our game than blunt force trauma with a hand that doesn't warrant a sledgehammer. Your hand isn't that good and like I said I probably would just fold preflop.

    Unless you can guarantee that this opponent has so many gutshots and bottom pairs in his range that he'll call massive bets with. Then you exploit him while not playing the same way against the rest of the table. But I don't get the impression that's what you were doing.

  • karbynkarbyn Red Chipper Posts: 115 ✭✭
    Preflop is fine, size wise. But your hand selection is poor. You’ll often have callers behind or 3! and you’ll never know what flop you want. You’ll be forced to continue on so many flops that look good for you but are actually terrible.

    On the flop, you bet $40 into $30 and V simply didn’t believe you had anything. So he continued and spiked the turn. And with the pot already inflated it was easy to get it in. This is a fine flop to check back. Not too many draws out there. I’d you want to get, a simple 1/3 bet when in position is good, yes $10-12. That will keep your opponent’s range wide and allow you to extract some value. Also, you’d be far from pot committed if he xr the turn and you can easily fold.
  • WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    karbyn wrote: »
    On the flop, you bet $40 into $30 and V simply didn’t believe you had anything.

    He bet $40 into $75. Allowing second best to continue, although having followed this thread I can surely find merit in betting smaller ($20 ish).

    karbyn wrote: »
    This is a fine flop to check back. Not too many draws out there. I’d you want to get, a simple 1/3 bet when in position is good, yes $10-12.

    If your review (as it seems) somehow missed out that we are multiway going into the flop, well yeah sure... I can understand us wanting to check this board some of the time. While there ain't too many draws, in this 5-way pot I assume everyone in this thread to not know what the hell any turn card (except the Q) would be doing for our opponents. If this is a check on the flop, I believe we are giving up if this hand gets checked through. If that is the plan you suggest, we should've folded preflop.

  • karbynkarbyn Red Chipper Posts: 115 ✭✭
    Wassenaar wrote: »
    karbyn wrote: »
    On the flop, you bet $40 into $30 and V simply didn’t believe you had anything.

    He bet $40 into $75. Allowing second best to continue, although having followed this thread I can surely find merit in betting smaller ($20 ish).
    Ugh. Somehow missed the plethora of preflop callers.
    Yes, something around $20-25 would be reasonable IMO. That said, while overbets are usually a polarized range, this is a good merge. I wouldn't hate ~$105 into $75; it would put V in a tough spot with TT, Jx, and even Qx hands. I just wouldn't do it often where we have really good SDV, and can extract more value before showdown.

    Regardless of sizing, V just didn't believe him.... "Oh I put you on AK" is the classic defensive statement if challenged after showdown. Certainly overplaying our hand on later streets compounded the issue.

  • WassenaarWassenaar Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    karbyn wrote: »
    "Oh I put you on AK"

    This might be one of the most spoken quotes of all time in a live game. I absolutely love it :p

  • BigFudgeBigFudge Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Wassenaar wrote: »
    karbyn wrote: »
    "Oh I put you on AK"

    This might be one of the most spoken quotes of all time in a live game. I absolutely love it :p

    Way way off topic here...but I use this line sarcastically when somebody won’t stop badgering me about calling their horribly misplaced and obvious river bluff. On the extra savory moments when they didn’t even have that much I add “I guess I gave you too much credit”. I generally don’t poke players, but as we all know the critics screw up the game for the gamblers and the gamblers are my customer so whenever I have a chance to poke a critic and have a little fun at the same time I take it.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file